In week 2 the big upsets were Texas coming back to take down Ohio State and Oregon falling to Oklahoma State. Last week the upset was Kentucky dumping Texas A&M at home. The Ole Miss versus LSU game lived up to the billing, and surprises but not upsets were Mississippi State defeating South Carolina at home and a higher ranked SMU losing to Louisville. The games are getting better and harder to select. This week I picked 6 top twenty matchup games. I may have also picked a couple of stinkers, but they still have my interest.
Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:
Must See games: M
Games of Interest: O
Here are my 12 games for the week. Let’s get to it.
Friday, September 25
O Northwestern 2-0 vs 5 Indiana 3-0
FOX 7:00pm
This could be one of the stinkers, but I see it as real gauge for both teams. Is Northwestern something different with OC Chip Kelly and has Cignetti’s team fallen off or are they true national championship contenders. As of now the Hoosiers have won19 games in a row. They’ll win this one too, but the question is by how much.
Win Probability – Indiana 90.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Indiana -21, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Indiana
Saturday, September 26
M 1 Texas 3-0 vs 14 Tennessee 3-0
ABC 11:00am
One of the three best games of the weekend. Texas came back and won against Ohio State to earn the number one spot but with games against Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and LSU remaining, it’ll be difficult to stay there. Yes, I left Oklahoma and Texas A&M off the list, go figure. Tennessee QB Brandon Faizon has played well thus far and watch for the Volunteer’s defense against Texas’s running game. The Horns have struggled running the ball and the game is in Knoxville. It isn’t a given for Texas.
Win Probability – Texas 66.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Texas -4.5, O/U 56.5
OTC’s Pick – Texas
O Illinois 2-1 vs 7 Ohio State 2-1
FOX 11:00am
Another possible stinker but also a gauge game. Illinois has been 21-8 since 2024 under Brett Bielema. This isn’t his best team, but they’re mid-tier B1G. Ohio State is just too talented for the Illini with QB Julian Sayin and WR Jeremiah Smith. After three games Smith has 21 receptions for 400 yards, 3 TDs, and a 19 yard per catch average. Can you say Heisman?
Win Probability – Ohio State 92.9%
Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -27.5, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – Ohio State
M 4 Ole Miss vs 21 Florida
ABC 2:30pm
Ole Miss takes down Lane Kiffin’s LSU squad and still goes to ‘The Swamp’ as an underdog. I get it, Florida’s QB Aron Philo leads an offense that has posted 298.3 yards passing, 246.0 yards rushing for 544.3 yards and 54 points per game. RB Jadan Baugh averages 8.5 yards per rush, 154.7 yards per game and has 8 TDs while WRs Vernell Brown and Dallas Wilson have 26 receptions for 471 yards and 4 TDs. Defensively the Gators have logged 23 tackles for a loss, 11 sacks, 22 passes defended, 3 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries and only allow 21 points per game. Almost every stat number is better than the Rebels. Three that aren’t, Trinadad Chambliss’s passing yardage (924), Duce McCallister’s 20 receptions for 295 yards, and finally, the team’s number 4 ranking. If the Rebels come in flat after a big win, they could be in real trouble.
Win Probability – Florida 58.6%
Las Vegas Odds – Florida -3.5, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – Florida
M 17 Iowa 3-0 vs 18 Michigan 3-0
CBS 2:30pm
Two of the top five teams in the Big Ten. Iowa appears to be Iowa with Kirk Ferentz. Michigan isn’t the Michigan I expected with Kyle Whittingham. The Wolverines offense is anemic, and QB Bryce Underwood is the team’s leading rusher. Not good. Meanwhile, Iowa rushes for 268 yards and scores 37 points per game. Defensively the Hawkeyes only allow 176 yards of offense and 4.3 points per contest. Michigan stole a win against Western Michigan, defeated a bad Oklahoma team we thought was good, and then let UTEP hang with them through the whole first half before pulling away. The Wolverines have been a rollercoaster team with more down than up. This one is a defensive battle.
Win Probability – Michigan 62.2%
Las Vegas Odds – Michigan -5.5, O/U 38.5
OTC’s Pick – Iowa
O Oklahoma 2-1 vs 2 Georgia 3-0
ESPN 2:30pm
The Sooners have no offense and look terrible. They have relied on their defense, but this week they lost one of their better defenders in DT David Stone. Fans want OC Ben Arbuckle to be fired and are asking why Venables was extended. Meanwhile Georgia QB Gunnar Stockton has an 84.4% pass completion rate, and the Bulldogs defense allows less than 50 yards rushing per game. And never underestimate Kirby Smart. This one could get uglier than imaginable.
Win Probability – Georgia 82.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -14, O/U 44.5
OTC’s Pick – Georgia
O Wisconsin 2-1 vs 13 Penn State 3-0
Peacock 4:00pm
In looking at this one, I’ll just go ahead and call it a stinker. Penn State wins with Rocco Becht, 3 running backs, each with over 100 yards rushing, and WR Koby Howard, 12 receptions for 344 yards, a 28.7 yard per catch average and 1 TD. The Nittany Lion’s defense is superior to the Badger’s as well, only allowing 201 yards and 7.3 points per game. This will be loss number two on the season for Luke Fickell and it’s questionable he makes it through the season.
Win Probability – Penn State 77.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Penn State -10, O/U 45
OTC’s Pick – Penn State
M Nebraska 3-0 vs Michigan State 2-1
BTN 4:00pm
Husker fans want to believe in what they’ve seen from the Huskers in the first three games but are nervous about going to Michigan State. Why, because good things usually don’t happen in East Lansing and HC Pat Fitzgerald, DC Joe Rossi, and STC Lavar Woods know the Huskers too well. Fitzgearld knows the formula for success and Rossi was the DC at Minnesota the last five times the Gophers defeated Nebraska. Woods has beaten Nebraska more than once with nothing more than special teams. This is a must-win game for Matt Rhule if he’s to have the continued support of Husker fans.
Win Probability – Nebraska 66.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -5, O/U 49
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska
O Oklahoma State 2-1 vs West Virgina 3-0
FS1 6:00pm
Oklahoma State lost to Tulsa in game one by 14 points. Then Eric Morris’s team defeated Oregon 39-31 in a game that wasn’t that close. So, which team is real? The Mountaineers are 3-0 and just defeated a good Virgina team in Charlottesville. This game comes down to West Virginia QB Michael Hawkins and RB Cam Cook’s rushing game against Okie State’s QB Drew Mestemaker and his wide receivers. The Cowboy’s defensive strength, rush defense. West Virginia’s defensive weakness, pass defense. This one is as close as the spread indicates.
Win Probability – West Virgina 52.7%
Las Vegas Odds – West Virginia -1.5, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma State
M 23 Texas A&M 2-1 vs 10 LSU 2-1
ABC 6:30pm
Here we are in the fourth week of the season with an elimination game. Both teams have a loss and one of them will pick up their second, which will likely knock them out of CFP contention. A&M was shocked last week by Kentucky. LSU’s new QB, Sam Levitt is a warrior but isn’t the quarterback Kiffin thought he was getting. The game is at night in Baton Rouge. The house will be rocking and Kiffin will not allow a second loss.
Win Probability – LSU 76.6%
Las Vegas Odds – LSU -7.5, O/U 53.5
OTC’s Pick – LSU
M 20 Oregon 2-1 vs 12 USC 4-0
NBC 6:30pm
Who are the Ducks? They haven’t looked like the Oregon Ducks we’ve come to know, skimping by Boise State, losing to Oklahoma State and thumping a bad Portland State team. So, who are they. And how good is USC after what we saw against Rutgers? They were supposed to be better defensively, but after giving up 35 to the 0-3 Scarlet Knights, who knows. Don’t bother looking at the stats for answers, they won’t help as these two teams are almost identical in every area.
Win Probability – Oregon 55.9%
Las Vegas Odds – Oregon -2.5, O/U 62.5
OTC’s Pick – USC
O 19 Missouri 3-0 vs 24 Mississippi State 3-0
SEC Network 6:45pm
Kamario Taylor alone pushed me to pick Mississippi State. He’s thrown for 832 yards, 11 TDs to 1 interception while rushing for 177 yards and 1 TD. He has a strong supporting cast in RB Fluff Bothwell and WR Anthony Evans III (20 catches, 294 yards, 3 TDs) plus three other WRs who have caught 25 balls for 427 yards and 7 TDs. Missouri has a good offense and is strong on defense. But it isn’t enough. Dogs over Cats.
Win Probability – Mississippi State 66.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Mississippi State -6.5, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – Mississippi State
I ended up picking 12 games and as always these are games that interest me and perhaps not so much the college football world. We are starting to see ranked matchups and games that will keep teams from getting into the rankings. After three weeks, I’m 24-9 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. This week I made some questionable picks in Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and USC.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
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