Last week I talked about the Big Ten’s poor performance against the MAC Conference. But in week 2 they took a haymaker on the chin with Minnesota being dismantled by Mississippi State, Illinois losing to Duke, Texas taking down Ohio State, and the real shocker, Oregon losing 31-39 to Oklahoma State. And that game wasn’t as close as the score indicated. Another game of note, Washington barley got by Utah State 16-14, and that was after State turned the ball over 3 times. Having won the last three national championships, the Big Ten has been the best conference in college football, but they haven’t looked like it in 2026. But don’t write anyone off just yet, it’s a long season and every one of them can just as easily come to life as continue to fall.
Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:
Must See games: M
Games of Interest: O
Here are my 12 games for the week. Let’s get to it.
Friday, September 18
M 22 Houston 2-0 vs 13 Texas Tech 2-0
FOX 7:00pm
It was thought that Houston would be the greatest threat on Tech’s schedule this season. After the way the Red Raider’s played at Oregon State last week, Houston is more than just a threat. Both teams have defeated Oregon State this season, Tech won 35-22 and Houston 33-20. Other stats to know from Oregon State, Tech gave up 413 yards and 2 TDs passing, Houston gave up 375 yards and 1 TD passing. Houston QB Conner Weigman passed for 305 yards and 1 TD while rushing for 30 yards and another score. Tech QB Will Hammond threw for 189 yards, 1 TD and -22 yards rushing. Houston rushed for 228 yards and 3 TDs. Tech rushed for 155 yards and 3 TDs. The Cougars turned the ball over twice. If Joey McGuire fields the same team we saw against the Beavers, Willie Fritz’z Cougars will walk away with a win. I give a slight edge to Houston.
Win Probability – Texas Tech 73.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Texas Tech -8, O/U 53.5
OTC’s Pick – Houston
Saturday, September 19
O UNC 2-0 vs Clemson 1-1
ESPN 11:00am
These two coach’s careers are on the move, and this game will tell us in which direction. Is Belichick on the way up as things appear or is Dabo on his way-out like everybody thinks. Clemson didn’t look like they should be on the same field with LSU, and they didn’t exactly run away from Georgia Southern. North Carolina slowly improved last season and won their first two games this season. Is there momentum building? Just a few years ago Belichick was the King of the NFL, winning multiple Super Bowls before heading to Chapel Hill. Dabo won two National Championships in three years, but his success cost him coordinators and now he’s starting a freshman QB in Tait Reynolds. Depending on this game and what happens the rest of the season, both coaches could find themselves out of jobs.
Win Probability – Clemson 59.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Clemson -5.5, O/U 45.5
OTC’s Pick – North Carolina
O Florida State 1-1 vs 10 Alabama 2-0
ABC 2:30pm
This game probably shouldn’t be on the list, but the Mike Norvell exit is too hard to ignore, and we all know a bad defeat against Bama puts him one step further out the door. The whole season has never been about if, just when, especially since Florida State fired their AD on Monday. The new guy is being brought in to hire a new coach and figure out how to pay for it. But Bama’s talent level is better, and their QB Keelon Russell is elite compared to Florida State’s Ashton Daniels. A win in this game keeps Bama fans off DeBoer’s back another week. It all comes together to create Norvell’s worst nightmare.
Win Probability – Alabama 89.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Alabama -20.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Alabama
M 16 SMU 2-0 vs 23 Louisville 1-1
ESPN2 2:30pm
The second-best game of the weekend will occur between two coaches who have had success over the last couple of seasons and are in the sights of multiple schools as their next head coach. Jeff Brohm has a record of 95-57 and is part of the Bobby Petrino coaching tree. SMU’s Rhett Lashlee has a record of 40-16 and came up under Gus Malzahn. They both have talented field generals in QBs Lincoln Kienholz and Kevin Jennings. Kienholz leads an offense that totals 552 total yards a game, 342 yards passing and 211 yards rushing. Jennings’s offense totals 566 yards a game, 442 yards passing and 124 yards rushing. The Cardinal’s defense gives up 370 yards and 27 points a game. The Pony’s defense gives up 278 yards and 17 points a game. It comes down to Louisville playing tougher competition and being at home.
Win Probability – Louisville 52.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Louisville -1.5, O/U 59.5
OTC’s Pick – Louisville
O Kentucky 1-1 vs 9 Texas A&M 2-0
ESPN 2:30pm
Kentucky may compete with A&M at the start, but they won’t be able to hang. They lack the talent to overcome the Aggies at College Station and neither team is a juggernaut on offense. But QB Marcel Reed has more experience than Kenny Minchey and Elko more than Stien. And if that isn’t enough the Aggies have way more money.
Win Probability – Texas A&M 86.2%
Las Vegas Odds – Texas A&M -16.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Texas A&M
O Mississippi State 2-0 vs South Carolina 2-0
SECN 3:15pm
Last week Mississippi State took PJ’s oars, broke them over the Gophers heads, and went back to SEC country. The biggest culprit in making that happen, 6’4”, 230-pound Bulldog quarterback Kamario Taylor who has thrown for 591 yards and 7 touchdowns while rushing for 145 yards. The Heisman candidate has racked up the yards while only been sacked 1 time and throwing 0 interceptions in 2 games. In comparison Gamecock’s QB LaNorris Sellers has passed for 366 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 interception while rushing for 120 yards and 1 TD. I like Kamario Taylor, but if South Carolina wins this one, it’ll happen with defense.
Win Probability – South Carolina 61%
Las Vegas Odds – South Carolina -4.5, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – Mississippi State
O Florida 2-0 vs Auburn 2-0
ESPN 6:00pm
This game pits two new coaches who are seen as the answer to resurrect once proud programs. Both schools have taken big swings with misses over the last few seasons. Now Auburn turns to Alex Golesh, former South Florida coach where he went 23-15. Florida has pinned their hopes to former Troy and Tulane coach Jon Sumrall, who spent two years at each school and had a combined record of 43-12. Both brought players with them and went out and found quarterbacks. Golesh brought in his South Florida QB Bryum Brown. Sumrall let his new OC Buster Faulkner bring his QB from Georgia Tech, Aaron Philo. Florida has been lighting up the scoreboard and is better taking the ball away. Golesh’s QB has been giving the ball away. Advantage, Gators.
Win Probability – Florida 57.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Florida -2.5, O/U 53.5
OTC’s Pick – Florida
M North Dakota 3-0 vs Nebraska 2-0
BTN 6:15pm
Ohio and Bowling Green may be from the MAC Conference and Nebraska may have outscored them 105-28 in their first two games, and North Dakota may be an FCS school, but everything I’m seeing tells me the Fighting Hawks will be Nebraska’s toughest non-conference foe. Rhule just needs to keep reminding his team that the FCS has defeated FBS teams 6 times already this season. It also wouldn’t hurt for him to point out that two of his top defensive players, Andrew Marshall and Jahmir Conn, joined the team from the FCS ranks. And finally, if I were Rhule, I’d ask my Blackshirts how they like defending Husker QB Anthony Colandrea in practice, because 6’2”, 215-pound Hawks QB Jerry Kaminski is a bigger, equally talented player. The Huskers will need to get down to business quickly and not let up, because if they let North Dakota hang around, bad things will happen.
Win Probability – Nebraska 91.7%
Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -23.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska
M 7 LSU 2-0 vs 8 Ole Miss 2-0
ABC 6:30pm
Who took Ole Miss to the playoffs last season, was it Lane Kiffin or Pete Golding? That plus every other controversy you can think of is part of the soap opera that has become the Battle of the SEC’s Billy-Bobs. When Kiffin left for Baton Rouge, there was considerable butthurt in Oxford. When he loaded up a few Rebel players to go with him it made things even worse. Two of those players were LB TJ Dottery and DE Princewell Umanmielen. Umanmielen leads the nation with 5 sacks and Dottery is the Tigers leading tackler. This week Ole Miss served papers against Umanmielen for not fulfilling the contract he signed before leaving for LSU. The kickback, Kiffin playing the game within the game, listing a slew of players on the injury report. They include star players like TE Trey’Dez Green and LB Whitt Weeks as “probable”, the above-mentioned TJ Dottery as “questionable”, and the multi-million-dollar man, QB Sam Levitt, as “Doubtful”. What a farce. Golding has enough talent to win with guys like Trinadad Chambliss, Kewan Lacey, and Deuce Alexander. But does he have what it takes to go against Kiffin? Golding is seen as the hero for staying with the Rebels, Kiffin has a way of going from villain to do-gooder and back to villain. Somebody wins the game, but both end up with blackeyes.
Win Probability – LSU 57.8%
Las Vegas Odds – LSU -3.5, O/U 59.5
OTC’s Pick – LSU
O West Virginia 2-0 vs 25 Virginia 2-0
ACCN 6:30pm
Rich Rodriguez has been on the coaching roller-coaster over the last 25 seasons with a four-year layoff from 2018 to 2021. He went 60-6 at West Virginia, 15-22 at Michigan, 43-35 at Arizona, 27-10 at Jacksville State, and now 6-8 at West Virginia, 4-8 last season and 2-0 so far this season. They say you can’t go home again but Rich Rod is giving it his best shot. Virginia’s Tony Elliot found nothing but success as offensive coordinator or co-coordinator under Dabo Swinney at Clemson, winning two national championships. He’s slowly raised the Cavalier’s level of play and led them to their first 11-win season in school history last year. Rich Rod is still up and down. Elliot and Virginia continue the climb.
Win Probability – Virginia 75.6%
Las Vegas Odds – Virginia -9.5, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – Virginia
O Colorado 2-0 vs Northwestern 1-0
FOX 6:30pm
In my estimation one of these programs is an imposter. This game will tell us which one it is. The Wildcats get Colorado at home, and it’s been announced this will be their last game at Martin Stadium (12,000 capacity) before new facility Ryan Field is open. We get to see more of the Chip Kelly-David Braun show and Northwestern better get Colorado while they can because their schedule doesn’t get any easier with Indiana and Penn State up next. Is it just me or is Coach Prime actually coaching this season. He seems more focused and has built a team that is showing life in the trenches. I want to say Colorado wins. But I can’t doubt Braun’s defense and Kelly’s offense at home.
Win Probability – Northwestern 64.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Northwestern -4.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Northwestern
O Michigan State 2-0 vs 3 Notre Dame 2-0
NBC 6:30pm
This has been a big game for both schools over the years, and Fitzgearld will try his darndest to make it seem that way again. There is potential for Michigan State with Fitgerald down the road, but right now there are too many new faces, and Fitgerald has too much catching up to do. Marcus Freeman has too much talent, making this game an absolute dud. Notre Dame will pound the Spartan’s like a kid with a new drum at Christmas. So, why am I interested, because Sparty plays the Huskers next. Will a big loss motivate them or put them in the dumps.
Win Probability – Notre Dame 93.9%
Las Vegas Odds – Notre Dame -29.5, O/U 52.5
OTC’s Pick – Notre Dame
I ended up picking 12 games and as always these are games that interest me and perhaps not so much the college football world. After two weeks, I’m 17-4 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. Most people should be able to do at least as well if not better in just picking games, especially with the number of mismatches early in the season.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
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