I had my worst week of the season last week. I blame it on two things. One, I picked Nebraska. And two, I got caught up in the upset games over the last two weeks. I paid for it with my picks.

The CFP released their first top 25 ranking Tuesday, so I’ll be using those numbers with my picks. Of the 22 teams I’ve selected this week, 11 are trying to avoid their third loss. Seven more teams have 1 loss or less. It’s a big week and as I said, it looks more like a three-loss team will have a shot at making the CFP.

I picked 11 games this week with 6 being Top 25 matchups. I marked three games as “Must See” and could have potentially picked two more. Sorry husker fans, but I’m so disgusted with Nebraska right now they aren’t a “Must See” game, that is unless you want to see more of what you’ve seen the last three outings. There’s only one game listed here that doesn’t really affect a conference race. You guessed it, the Nebraska – Illinois game.

Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:

Must See games: M

Games of Interest: O

Here are my 12 games for the week. Let’s get to it.

Friday, November 6

O Virginia Tech 6-2 vs SMU 6-2

ESPN 6:00pm

James Franklin and his Hokies started out hot, then took two losses in a row before getting back on track with a big win over Clemson. Now you’re seeing Franklin’s name popping up for potential openings. I don’t see it. Virgina Tech has invested in their NIL and knows what they have in Franklin. Franklin knows VT’s potential as well.  SMU’s head coach Rhett Lashlee is also seeing his name pop up for open jobs. But he too knows SMU’s potential and recently signed a new contract. SMU was 6-1 before an unexpected loss to a 4-4 Syracuse team. Now they face a trio of playoff contenders in VT, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. They have an uphill battle. The winner of this game can still win the ACC. SMU must still face Wake Forest, while Virgina Tech still has Miami ahead. So, both schools still control their own future.

Win Probability – SMU 65.7%

Las Vegas Odds – SMU -7.5 O/U 55.5

OTC’s Pick – Virgina Tech

O Nebraska 5-3 vs Illinois 5-3

FOX 7:00pm

I was convinced Nebraska was an 8-4 team this season but after three consecutive losses, the last of which I’d call a complete meltdown, I’m now thinking 5-7 or 6-6. Nebraska needs to fix what’s been missing and now that Dana Holgorsen and run game coordinator Geep Wade are in the press box together they need to figure out how to establish a running game. If Nebraska can run the ball on the Illini, it’ll open the passing game. The Illini are next to last in receiving yards gave up in the Big Ten. For Nebraska to capitalize on that Colandrea will need to find the open receivers and they will need to make catches. We saw way too many drops against Washington. I know I said it about the Washington game, but this is a must win game for Nebraska. If they lose this one, more than likely the bottom falls out. And by that, I mean, Rhule will have completely lost both the team and the fan base. You haven’t seen ugly yet.

Illinois is calling for a blue-out and head coach Brett Beilema personally paid for the new helmets. The Illini are making this game special and will try to take advantage of a team they feel will give up if they get down early. Illinois lost to Duke, then Ohio State and Purdue but has rebounded with three consecutive wins. The most impressive, a 21-10 win over Oregon where they rushed for 225 yards and 5.8 yards per carry. Illini head coach Brett Bielema knows Big Ten football and understands how the game should be played. That’s a problem for Matt Rhule because Illinois is 10-3 in one score games the last three seasons. With games remaining against UCLA, Iowa, and Northwestern, Illinois needs this game to reach six wins. Nebraska is the most gettable of the Illini’s last four games. Don’t underestimate Bielema and his staff. They’ll have a plan to minimize Colandrea and what Nebraska does best.

Win Probability – Nebraska 65.1%

Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -3.5 O/U 51

OTC’s Pick – Illinois

Saturday, November 7

O 7 Texas 6-2 vs 18 Missouri 6-2

ESPN 11:00AM

Two teams that are still battling for the SEC championship and a spot in the playoffs. A third loss by either team all but kills their chances. Quarterback Arch Manning has looked better over the last two weeks after losses against Oklahoma and Florida. Texas must beat Missouri and LSU next week. With being one of the most talented teams in the country they are still capable of winning out and making a run. Missouri’s losses were to Mississippi State when Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell were at full speed and then to Ole Miss. The back half of their schedule is loaded with games against Texas, Georgia, and Kentucky. Eli Drinkwitz’s offense is hard to stop when it gets going with QB Austin Simmons who has passed for 1,952 yards and 16 TDs. RB Jamal Roberts had 190 rushing attempts and 16 receptions for 1,130 total yards. If the Longhorns are to win this one, it’ll be defense.

Win Probability – Texas 57.5%

Las Vegas Odds – Texas -2.5 O/U 44.5

OTC’s Pick – Texas

M 9 BYU 7-1 vs 3 Utah 8-0

ABC 12:00pm

This is the biggest game in the state of Utah and is certainly one of the two best games in week 10 and maybe the biggest game ever in the so called “Holy War”. The two teams are at the top of the Big XII and it’s the first time they have both been ranked in the top ten at the time of the game. Utah has the longest current winning streak in the nation with 14 games. The Utes are coming off big wins over Houston and Cincinnati. But other than Houston, haven’t really played anyone. BYU and Arizona will be their last two big tests. This game will highlight a pair of QBs in Utah’s Devon Dampier and BYU’s Bear Bachmeier. Dampier has passed for 1,876 yards, 18 TDs and 7 interceptions while rushing for 393 yards and 5 TDs. Bachmeier has passed for 1,750 yards 12 TDs and 4 interceptions while rushing for 336 yards and 7 TDs. Whichever QB has the best game wins. Good news for BYU is running back LJ Martin may be back for BYU. He played a big role last season and has been missed in the Cougars offense. BYU has won the last three games between these two.

Win Probability – Utah 65.2%

Las Vegas Odds – Utah -5.5 O/U 48.5

OTC’s Pick – BYU

O 8 UCLA 8-0 vs Minnesota 5-3

FOX 11:00AM

I find this game extremely interesting. One, because I think UCLA is a good team. And two, they haven’t played anyone as good as PJ Fleck’s Minnesota team. UCLA is undefeated and leads the Big Ten but has had a less than challenging schedule thus far. They’ve only defeated two teams with winning records. Oregon and Wisconsin. And Oregon was without Dante Moore at the time. But give Bob Chesney credit, his Bruin team leads the nation with 26 takeaways and only allows 13.5 points per game. Minnesota is having an up and down season, winning games against Michigan and Iowa but losing to a 3-5 Purdue team and Mississippi State team led by Kamario Taylor. The Gophers took No. 6 Indiana into overtime last weekend and may be hitting their stride. This will be a defensive battle. 

Win Probability – UCLA 69.4%

Las Vegas Odds – UCLA -6.5 O/U 39.5

OTC’s Pick – Minnesota

O 5 Alabama 6-2 vs 14 LSU 6-2

ABC 2:30pm

Two more 6-2 teams trying to avoid that third loss that puts them on the outside looking in for CFP contention. The Tide’s Georgia loss isn’t bad, but Bama being ranked No.5 in the CFP was a big surprise for everyone after having a 16-point loss to Tennessee. Kelon Russell started out hot but struggled against the Volunteers only passing for 147 yards and throwing 2 interceptions while rushing for 6 yards. He looked much better against A&M last week but still threw an interception. It’s something to watch for against an LSU defense that has 64 TFLs, 34 sacks, and 7 interceptions on the season. One of the keys for LSU is Sam Levitt also taking care of the ball. Levitt has 8 interceptions for the year, and the Tiger’s losses have come when they give the ball away. It’s hard to imagine this not being a night game in Death Valley, but dark or light, this should be entertaining.

Win Probability – LSU 66.4%

Las Vegas Odds – LSU -4.5 O/U 52.5

OTC’s Pick – LSU

O Oregon 5-3 vs 12 Ohio State 6-2

CBS 2:30pm

The top Big Ten game of the week and the battle of the backup quarterbacks. Still, this game is important because in the CFP scheme of things Oregon is on life support and Ohio State isn’t far behind. Oregon is without QB Dante Moore, who won’t be back this season. That leaves backup Dylan Raiola. When Raiola is good, he’s really good. When he’s bad, he’s really bad. Which Raiola shows up? Ohio State is without QB Julian Sayin, which obviously changes who they are. Luke Fahey didn’t play bad in the USC loss, he passed for 268 yards and 1 TD with no interceptions, but the Buckeyes just couldn’t get it going. Look for Ryan Day to figure out how to get WR Jeremiah Smith more involved. Before the season I picked Ohio State to lose to both USC and Oregon. They lost to USC. But Oregon isn’t Oregon this season.

Win Probability – Ohio State 71.9%

Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -6 O/U 48.5

OTC’s Pick – Ohio State

 

O 6 Kentucky 7-1 vs 13 Tennessee 6-2

ESPN 7:15pm

Are Will Stein’s Wildcats for real. I keep thinking someone is going to step to the plate and convince me it’s all a sham. Stein and QB Kenny Minchey have been a good fit and have made Kentucky one of the surprise teams of the season. After losing to Alabama in the second game of the season, they knocked off South Carolina, LSU, and beat a good Oklahoma defense on Sooner turf. But the Wildcats need to be wary, Rocky Top can be a place where good teams get humbled. Tennessee has been up and down due to QB play. But they have two things that winning teams need, a running game and a good defense. They only give up 288 total yards and 16 points a game. They also have 66 TFLs, 35 sacks, 8 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries. Rocky Top will be rocking.

Win Probability – Tennessee 68.9%

Las Vegas Odds – Tennessee -6 O/U 50.5

OTC’s Pick – Tennessee

O 19 Iowa 6-2 vs Northwestern 6-2

FOX 6:30pm

Iowa squeaked by Michigan then lost to Ohio State. They rebounded with a dominate performance over a down Washington team and then lost in the last seconds against Minnesota. Then last week they defeated what we thought was a decent Wisconsin team 30-0. As always with a Kirk Ferentz team, good special teams, sound defense and questionable QB play. So, here we are, suspecting the Hawkeyes are dangerous but not knowing for sure. Northwestern with Chip Kelly as their OC has made the Wildcats a surprise team. Kelly has taken QB Aiden Chiles to the next level. Add that to RB Caleb Komolafe and WR Griffin Wilde and you have an offensive powerhouse. Throw in head coach David Bruan’s defensive mind and the Wildcats are dangerous. The purple team will welcome the black and gold to their impressive new home, Ryan Field.

Win Probability – Northwestern 52.6%

Las Vegas Odds – Northwestern -2.5 O/U 44.5

OTC’s Pick – Northwestern

M 2 Georgia 7-1 vs 10 Ole Miss 6-2

ABC 6:30pm

This is one of the top games in the SEC this weekend. Kirby smart has been doing Kirby Smart things, and other than a misstep by Gunnar Stockton (3 turnovers) at home against Auburn the Bulldogs have looked like potential national champions. Gunnar Stockon will set the tone for the Bulldogs. Obviously, we’ve seen when he isn’t on point it’s bad for the Dogs. Ole Miss has Trinadad Chambliss and it isn’t hard to say as he goes, so goes the Rebels. But Golding’s defense will need to be in tip-top form to beat Georgia, even in Oxford. This has been a competitive game the last two meetings and Ole Miss can’t afford another loss.

Win Probability – Georgia 61.6%

Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -5.5 O/U 56.5

OTC’s Pick – Georgia

M 1 Miami 8-0 vs 11 Notre Dame 7-1

NBC 6:30pm

After the first CFP rankings, Notre Dame finds themselves in a must win situation against No. 1 ranked Miami. With Notre Dame being ranked No. 11 it’s obvious the committee is penalizing them for their strength of schedule. Wolverine QB Tommy Carr has been good, throwing for 1,849 yards, 18 TDs and 1 interception and WR Jordan Faison is his go-to guy. The Irish Defense only allows 234 total yards and 13 points per game. Take that as you will considering the competition. In a bit of good news for the Irish, the Hurricanes will be without early Heisman hopeful WR Malichi Toney, who had surgery on a high ankle sprain. It’s a big loss. Cane’s QB Darin Mensah has been playing lights out, throwing for 2,245 yards with a 80.7% completion rate, 25 TDs and 1 interception. But Toney is accountable for over 1,000 of those yards and 13 TDs. There isn’t another Hurricane receiver who is close statistically, so who fills the void? This is one of the biggest games on both team’s schedule. Neither has played anyone of substance. Touchdown Jesus will be smiling.

Win Probability – Notre Dame 65%

Las Vegas Odds – Notre Dame -7.5 O/U 57.5

OTC’s Pick – Notre Dame

The picks were difficult this week and I struggled with whether I should go by the numbers or my feeling for what I’ve seen from each team thus far. For week nine I went 4-7 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. So now I’m 53-39 for the season. I ignored the numbers last week and went with a feel. It didn’t work out for me. So, I tried to pay closer attention this week. But I still took Virgina Tech, BYU, Illinois, and Minnesota. So, maybe I didn’t learn anything.

GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!

Art worked designed and owned by Lyle Harmon and ‘Off the Cob’.

Stats gathered from ESPN - Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.

Stay on top of Husker football at CarrikerChronicles.com