Nebraska football has won by more than 14.5 points in every game it has played this season, and on Saturday it goes into Maryland with its leading rusher doubtful and its second-leading rusher questionable. That is the open question: can an offense that has leaned on Jamal Rule’s 7.9 yards a carry still put Maryland away?

My pick: Nebraska 42, Maryland 13. I think the line is too low, and I would go higher if Rule were healthy. He is listed doubtful on Thursday’s Big Ten availability report, and I am treating him as out.

Many are saying this game is closer than I think it is. DraftKings has Nebraska by 14.5, and the three published picks I found have Nebraska covering 13.5, covering 16, and winning 31-10. All three have it closer than I do.

Everything below is my read, not the model’s. Kickoff is 3 p.m. CT at Memorial Stadium on FS1, for Homecoming.

I am not guessing at the number

My three picks this season missed the final margin by 3, 7 and 5 points: Ohio 42-17 against a 49-21 final, Bowling Green 52-10 against 56-7, and North Dakota 45-13 against 34-7. In the two games I have graded against the betting line, the line missed by 4.5 and 18.5, and both times I had Nebraska winning by more than the line did, and Nebraska did. The scorecard is in I Said 52-10. It Was 56-7.

I could be wrong on this one. Being wrong in college sports happens all the time, and it happens in every sport. That is the price of putting a number on it.

What the backfield looks like

Rule leads Nebraska with 333 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, 35 percent of the team’s 946 yards on the ground. Mekhi Nelson is second at 227 yards and 5.4 a carry, and he is listed questionable. Isaiah Mozee has 149 at 4.8, and Vincent Genatone, who scored twice at Michigan State, is on the depth chart too. Receiver Jacory Barney Jr. is also questionable.

That is a real drop if Nelson sits as well, and it is why this is 42 and not higher. It is not a reason to pick a close game. Nebraska scored 31 at Michigan State with Rule carrying four times, and Anthony Colandrea led the team in rushing with 66 yards. Nebraska lists seven players out Thursday.

Why 14.5 is still too low

Nebraska has won by 28, 49, 27 and 18, an average of 30.5, and its worst margin of the year is 18. It has scored at least 30 in each of its first four games, the first time that has happened since 2019, and it is the only team in the FBS to outgain every opponent by at least 100 yards.

The defense allows 12.0 points a game, tenth in the country, and ranks fourth nationally at 3.75 sacks a game after getting to the quarterback six times in Nebraska’s 31-13 win at Michigan State. Nebraska has turned the ball over once all season. Maryland has done it five times. A 14.5-point line prices an ordinary Nebraska, and this team has not played an ordinary game yet.

The UCLA question

UCLA beat Maryland 54-3 last Saturday in College Park, a 51-point margin, and the Bruins top the Big Ten standings at 4-0 and 2-0. I think Nebraska wants a win on Homecoming that looks at least that good. I am not picking 54-3. The biggest win Nebraska has this season is 49, over Bowling Green, and without Rule I do not see 51. My number is 29 points. UCLA’s was 51.

What keeps Maryland at 13

Maryland is not a pushover on offense. Its passing attack averages 283.0 yards a game, 28th in the country, and by my math from the notes’ own averages it scored about 42 a game before UCLA held it to 3. Nebraska’s pass defense allows 143.0 a game, seventh nationally. That is the matchup I will be watching, and it is why I am giving Maryland 13 and not 3.

Maryland’s list is longer than Nebraska’s. Its Thursday report has 17 players out, including five running backs, three offensive linemen and three defensive linemen, with a linebacker doubtful and two more players questionable.

The history

Nebraska leads the series 3-1, and it has been tight. Last October at Maryland, Nebraska trailed 31-24 and won 34-31, with Dylan Raiola throwing four touchdowns. The visiting team has won each of the last three meetings, and the last two were decided in the final minute. This time Nebraska is the home team, and the Huskers have won 14 of their last 16 Homecoming games.

The person

With Rule out, Anthony Colandrea is the offense. He has accounted for 12 touchdowns in four games, averages 261.3 yards of total offense a game and has 141 rushing yards of his own, and he is already talking about what needs fixing. “We gotta fix that, we gotta clean that up,” he said after Michigan State, talking about an early second half that produced no points. That is the second half I want to see on Saturday.

Husker Nation, Saturday tells us whether a Nebraska offense that ran through Jamal Rule can still beat a 14.5 number without him.