Movement within the Top 25 continued as week 8 produced more upsets. Ranked teams that lost included No. 2 BYU, No. 7 Ole Miss, No.8 Texas Tech, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 14 Houston, No. 15 Iowa, and No. 16 USC. Obviously, everyone shifted in the rankings.

In the past a team having a third loss was looked at as sure elimination from the CFP, but this season it’s looking more like a three-loss team will have a shot at making it. Which will only make people even more adamant that the playoffs need to be expanded. Everyone dreaded the season games would become meaningless, the opposite seems to have happened. Every week of the season now counts.

I picked 11 games this week with only 2 being Top 25 matchups. I marked three games as “Must See” and one of those is Nebraska, so if you aren’t a Husker fan it doesn’t count. There’s maybe only one game listed here that won’t create separation within the conference or eliminate a team from the playoffs.

Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:

Must See games: M

Games of Interest: O

Here are my 11 games for the week. Let’s get to it.

Saturday, October 31

O 25 Wisconsin 5-2 vs Iowa 5-2

FOX 11:00pm

Talk about a turnaround, before the season Luke Fickell was considered as good as gone. But with his only losses coming against top 10 teams Notre Dame and UCLA, he has the Badgers playing up to fan’s expectations. The winning is due to two things, especially in the Big 10, running the football and playing good defense. These two teams do both well. Both allow less than 100 yards rushing per game and both rush for over 150 yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. All of which means this game will come down to toughness. As for the QB battle, give Wisconsin’s Colton Joseph the nod. Plus, will the Hawkeyes bounce back from a discouraging last second loss to Minnesota and can they overcome the loss of their leading rusher Kamari Moulton?

Win Probability – Iowa 60.8%

Las Vegas Odds – Iowa -3.5 O/U 36.5

OTC’s Pick – Wisconsin

M 22 Arizona 6-1 vs 13 Texas Tech 6-1

FOX 11:00pm

Texas Tech was upset by Cincinnati, and it didn’t sit well with Tech mega-booster Cody Campbell. He’s made it clear it’s unacceptable. So, how will the Red Raider coaches and players respond from the outside interference and noise? I’m guessing poorly, and playing Big XII dark horse Arizona won’t help. The difference in this one, quarterback play. Arizona QB Noah Fifita is underrated, passing for 18 TDs, 4 interceptions and a 72.8% completion rate in 7 games. Tech QB Will Hammond has been a disappointment, with a little over 6 yards per completion, 6 TDs and 6 interceptions. Tech’s defense is a shadow of what it was last season but still fields a ball hawking defense with 13 interceptions. With a win here Arizona puts the rest of the Big XII on notice.

Win Probability – Texas Tech 62.3%

Las Vegas Odds – Texas Tech -3.5 O/U 54.5

OTC’s Pick – Arizona

O Auburn 4-3 vs 12 Ole Miss 5-2

SEC Network 11:45

Even though the Rebel’s two losses were to ranked teams, Florida and Texas, they’re running on the edge of CFP qualification. A third loss doesn’t eliminate them, but it severely hampers their chances. This game will be about quarterback play, when Ole Miss’s Trinadad Chamblis is on, the Rebles are a national champion contender. When he’s not, as against Texas, 7 yards rushing and 3 interceptions, they are as vanilla as vanilla gets in a 31 flavors world. Auburn can be a dangerous team with Bryum Brown at quarterback. Georgia did a lot to beat themselves against Auburn, but Brown’s legs also made a difference as he rushed for 115 yards and a 1 TD. Auburn will compete, but Ole Miss takes care of the ball and contains Brown.

Win Probability – Ole Miss 78.7%

Las Vegas Odds – Ole Miss -13.5 O/U 57.5

OTC’s Pick – Ole Miss

O 17 Florida 5-2 vs 3 Georgia 6-1

ABC 2:30pm

Both teams are coming off a bye week. Georgia after losing to Auburn and Florida after a win over Texas. We’ve seen all season long teams struggle after big wins. The bye may loom big for Florida, as Georgia is sure to have ironed out whatever kinks they had, and the Gators need to forget the win over Texas. Florida runs the ball well with Jordan Baugh and has proven they can win with either QB Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones Jr. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton must play clean if the Bulldogs are to win. Two interceptions and a late fumble against the Gators will provide another loss. Which team ends up with the world’s largest hangover from the world’s largest cocktail party?

Win Probability – Georgia 78.3%

Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -11.5 O/U 55.5

OTC’s Pick – Georgia

O 20 Northwestern 6-1 vs Oregon 4-3

NBC 2:30pm

If there was ever a time to get Oregon, it’s now. If Northwestern ever had the team to get Oregon, it’s now. There were big questions about Dan Lanning losing both coordinators before the season. The Ducks have weathered the storm defensively but have collapsed offensively. So much so, Lanning fired his OC this week. The Ducks will attempt to power through, but it won’t be easy with this game and games against Ohio State and Michigan upcoming. I questioned the marriage of HC David Braun and new DC Chip Kelly, but it seems the odd fit has worked extremely well. Kelly has squeezed the full potential from QB Aiden Chiles this season. After being benched at Michigan State last year he’s now passed for 1,617 yards, 12 TDs, 1 interception with a 71.8% completion rate and rushed for 181 yards and 9 TDs in seven games. A win by Northwestern tells us everything we suspect about both teams.

Win Probability – Oregon 59.5%

Las Vegas Odds – Oregon -7.5 O/U 47.5

OTC’s Pick – Northwestern

O Minnesota 5-2 vs 4 Indiana 7-1

CBS 2:30pm

If PJ Fleck could get his team to keep both oars in the water, he’d row himself to where he wants to go. As it is he’s going in circles. The Gophers had a bad loss to Mississippi State, a win over Michigan, a loss to Purdue, a win over Iowa, and now face Indiana. Minnesota defeated Iowa due to the Hawkeyes turning the ball over 4 times. The Gophers lost every other statistical category. Indiana comes into the game ready for a bye, as they have played eight straight games, with the last two against Ohio State and Michigan. Even though Indiana has not looked like the Indiana of the last two seasons they are better across the board than the Gophers. The Hoosiers will take away the run and force Drake Lindsey to throw the ball. Lindsey has a 63.5% completion rate with 9 TDs and 6 interceptions. The only question in this one, Hoosier QB Josh Hoover’s health.

Win Probability – Indiana 90%

Las Vegas Odds – Indiana -22.5 O/U 41.5

OTC’s Pick – Indiana

O 6 Utah 6-0 vs Cincinnati 5-2

ESPN 2:45pm

Utah had a big win at home against Houston. Cincinnati took it to Texas Tech. All season we’ve seen teams fall flat after big wins. So, which of these teams does that happen too? Utah is ranked No. 6 but hasn’t really played anybody but Houston. Cincy dropped games to Arizona and West Virgina before rushing for 255 yards against Tech, who at the time only allowed 106.7 yards rushing per game. Utah allows 88.3 yards rushing per game, can the Bearcats have the same success running the ball against the Utes? If they do, they win this game. With both BYU and Texas Tech losing, Utah finds itself in the Big XII driver’s seat.

Win Probability – Utah 68.8%

Las Vegas Odds – Utah -6.5 O/U 56.5

OTC’s Pick – Cincinnati

O South Carolina 4-3 vs Oklahoma 4-3

SEC Network 3:15pm

Two SEC teams that find themselves on the verge of absolute playoff elimination. That may sound crazy, but the thought is a three-loss SEC team will make the CFP this season. Oklahoma’s best win is Texas, but Arch Manning wrapped that one in a pretty burnt orange bow and handed it to Brent Venables. The Sooner’s other wins, a suspect Michigan, a good but outclassed New Mexico, and a Mississippi State team without Kamario Taylor and Fluff Bothwell. Ask South Carolina if they’d like another shot at MSU without Super Kamario and Fluff. The Gamecocks lost to MSU, Alabama, and a close one to Kentucky in overtime. Then they took down Florida and Tennessee. As LaNorris Sellers goes, so goes the Gamecocks. Sellers passed for 1,548 yards, 13 TDs, and 5 interceptions while rushing for 507 yards and 4 TDs so far this season. OU QB John Mateer took a step backward this season with a 66.7% completion rate, 11 TDs and 7 interceptions. If it weren’t for the defense the Sooners would be winless. 

Win Probability – Oklahoma 60.7%

Las Vegas Odds – Oklahoma -4.5 O/U 44.5

OTC’s Pick – South Carolina

 

O Clemson 4-3 vs Florida State 3-4

ACC Network 6:00pm

I call games that probably shouldn’t make the list, Stinkers. This is one of those. But it’s Clemson and Florida State, two of what were traditionally the top teams in the ACC. Now instead of fighting to be top dog, these two coaches are fighting to keep their jobs. Mike Norvell has cooled the hotseat enough for the university to say they aren’t looking to make a change. As for Dabo, something needs to change. The Tigers best win is North Carolina, and their three losses are to Cal, Miami, and Virgina Tech. The most telling statistic about Clemson football, 2 passing touchdowns after 7 games. The Tigers only hope in this one, the Seminole’s defense is terrible, giving up an average of 434.9 total yards and 30 points per game. This one falls to FSU QB Ashton Daniels and WR Duce Robinson. Daniels has thrown for 1,698 yards,12 TDs, and 8 interceptions while rushing for 354 yards and 11 TDs. Robinson, his favorite target, has 22 receptions for 407 yards, an 18.7 yard per catch average and 4 TDs.

Win Probability – Florida State 67.4%

Las Vegas Odds – Florida State -5.5 O/U 49.5

OTC’s Pick – Florida State

M 2 Ohio State 6-1 vs USC 6-2

NBC 6:30pm

Before the season I picked USC to win this one and for Ohio State to end up with 3 to 4 losses on the season. Evidently, I don’t know what I’m talking about, but what I do know is, Lincoln Riley’s team is too soft for the Big Ten and is only decent when playing in the LA sunshine. The Trojans have a good passing game and just enough running game to compete. But defensively, they can’t keep up, giving up 331 yards and 30 points per game. The Trojans will depend on QB Jayden Maiava who has passed for 2,302 yards, 19 TDs, and 5 interceptions to keep them in the game. Ohio State is without starting quarterback Julian Sayin, but backup Luke Fahey brings a different element to the game that the Trojans haven’t seen from Ohio State this season. And with WR Jeremiah Smith, Fahey doesn’t need to be a hero, just don’t get crazy and feed the wrong man the ball.

Win Probability – Ohio State 68%

Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -7.5 O/U 54.5

OTC’s Pick – Ohio State

M Washington 4-3 vs Nebraska 5-2

BTN 7:00pm

Before the season it was anticipated Washington would come to Lincoln with a 6-1 record and ranked. It’s still uncertain how much Washington preventing Damond Williams from going to LSU damaged his relationship with head coach Jedd Fisch. Williams hasn’t looked like the same player this season and is now questionable against Nebraska due to bruised ribs. Backup QB Elijah Brown will play in his place if needed. Injures depleted Washington’s running back room early on and they are down to their fourth and fifth string running backs. Therefore, the Huskies rely on their passing game to move the ball. Defensively Washington is led by safeties Alex McLaughlin and Ryan Dillard-Allen. The pair has registered 80 tackles, 4 interceptions, and 1 forced fumble. Anthony Colandrea has been Nebraska’s leading rusher in the last three games, a trend that is troubling. The Huskers must be able to run the ball against Washington to have success. They’ve moved the ball throwing until teams realize they aren’t a threat running. Nebraska has yet to play a full four quarters of football this season and much of that is due to being unable to adjust. Nebraska comes in and finds success with plan ‘A’, but once the defense goes to plan ‘B’, the Huskers fail to have answers. Something must change because many fans see Rhule as a .500 coach, and until he proves otherwise – he is. It’s now or never for Rhule.

Win Probability – Nebraska 74.8%

Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -9.5 O/U 49.5

OTC’s Pick – Nebraska

I’m disappointed in the games this week and it probably won’t make my picks any better. For week eight I went 5-5 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. So now I’m 49-32 for the season. My record just keeps getting worse. Maybe like someone else I know, a .500 record is the best I can do.

GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!

Art worked designed and owned by Lyle Harmon and ‘Off the Cob’.

Stats gathered from ESPN - Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.

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