I said I wasn’t feeling too confident with my picks last week when I went out on a limb with a couple. I missed the Virgina Tech, Michigan, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia games to finish 7-5. My worst week so far. In my defense, Virgina Tech should have won, Minnesota hadn’t beaten Michigan at home since 1977, and nobody saw Florida’s loss coming. But that’s why we watch the games and love college football. I picked 12 games this week with 2 being top twenty-five matchups. Again, I’m sure I also picked a couple of stinkers, but even then, I think they have something to offer. Usually, I have two perhaps three games marked as “Must See”, but this week I have four. But that’s me, not everyone will feel the same.
Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:
Must See games: M
Games of Interest: O
Here are my 12 games for the week. Let’s get to it.
Friday, October 8
O Iowa State 3-2 vs 8 BYU 4-0
ESPN 9:15pm
Like most people, I wrote Jimmy Rogers and the Cyclones off before the season even started. Matt Campbell took everything but the kitchen sink when he left ISU. So, Rodgers started with nothing. But if there is a coach that knows how to win with nothing it’s Rodgers. With an FCS national championship under his belt, Rogers is starting his fourth season as a head coach. He currently has a record of 36-11. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake is starting his 11 season and has 23-4 record over the last two seasons. He’s put together a Big XII team capable of making the playoffs. BYU may have more talent, but I don’t see the Cyclones making it easy for the Cougars.
Win Probability – BYU 78.3%
Las Vegas Odds – BYU -14.5, O/U 46.5
OTC’s Pick – BYU
O Florida State 3-2 vs Louisville 2-3
ESPN 6:00pm
Easily the stinker game of all my picks. But I find it interesting because Florida State is making somewhat of a comeback and because Louisville is better than their three losses indicate. Mike Norvell’s hotseat has cooled, but a loss to 2-3 Louisville puts him right back on it. The Cardinals lost to a good Wake Forest team and an even better Ole Miss team. Five fumbles, losing three, did them in against NC State. Both teams field defenses that are in the bottom 100 of the FBS. Louisville has the better offense but averages 82.4 yards per game in penalties. A close game with the difference being Louisville at home.
Win Probability – Louisville 62.0%
Las Vegas Odds – Louisville -7.5, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – Louisville
O 20 Iowa 4-1 vs Washington 3-2
FS1 8:00pm
I still think Washington messed with Demond Williams’s mojo when they forced him to stay in Seattle. I know they have been decimated at running back, but there’s something else going on. Williams has been sacked 13 times by FBS opponents and the offense went 1-for-12 on third down against USC. Iowa has a much better defense and only allows 12.5 points a game. The Hawkeyes want to run the football, and they may have to with QB Hank Brown questionable due to injury. Iowa’s defense will keep them in the hunt. For the Huskies, two losses and games remaining against Oregon and Indiana isn’t good, they can’t stumble again.
Win Probability – Washington 59.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Washington -1.5, O/U 41.5
OTC’s Pick – Iowa
Saturday, October 9
O Texas A&M 3-2 vs 14 Missouri 4-1
ABC 11:00pm
Texas A&M is one of the bigger disappointment this season. After Missouri lost to Mississippi State it looked like they could be too, but they redeemed themselves last week against Florida. Aggie fans haven’t panicked yet, but a loss to Missouri may raise concerns about Elko. QB Marcel Reed has struggled this season with a 57% completion rate and 4 interceptions. He tossed 12 picks last season. The Aggie defense only has 5 sacks on the season, meaning Tiger QB Austin Simmons, who has passed for 1,287 yards, 13 TDs and 0 Interceptions should have time to stand in the pocket.
Win Probability – Missouri 67.1%
Las Vegas Odds – Missouri -1.5, O/U 48.5
OTC’s Pick – Missouri
M 7 Indiana 5-0 vs Nebraska 5-0
FOX 11:00pm
It would be easy to say neither of these teams has played anyone, yet they’ve both been challenged. Nebraska by Maryland, Indiana by Northwestern. At this point Northwestern is obviously better than Maryland. Matt Rhule has improved the talent on Nebraska’s roster. So much so that I’ll say they can beat anybody on their schedule. But…I’ll also say Nebraska is so inconsistent they can be beaten by anybody on their schedule. Indiana isn’t just anybody, they are the defending national champions and have won 21 straight games. Nebraska will not play a more disciplined team this season. Let’s go with the old cliché, games are won in the trenches, and this one is no different. If Nebraska can’t run the ball and stop the run, they won’t be competitive.
Win Probability – Indiana 72.7%
Las Vegas Odds – Indiana -9.5, O/U 51.5
OTC’s Pick – Indiana
O South Carolina 2-3 vs 16 Florida 4-1
SEC Network 11:45pm
This is an intriguing game because Florida walloped Ole Miss and then got their butts handed to them by Missouri. How will coach Jon Sumrall and his Gators respond. You can bet whatever they do it’ll involve RB Jaden Baugh. Baugh has rushed for 611 yards and 11 TDs with a 6.5 yard per carry average. Gamecock QB LaNorris Sellers hasn’t had a bad season, but he’s turned the ball over at inopportune times. At 0-3 in the SEC, South Carolina took the downward spiral we all expected before the season started. HC Shane Beamer won’t survive it.
Win Probability – Florida 79%
Las Vegas Odds – Florida -14.5, O/U 62.5
OTC’s Pick – Florida
M 21 UCLA 4-0 vs 11 Oregon 3-1
CBS 2:30pm
Both teams are coming off byes. Oregon had a big win over USC. UCLA dismantled Maryland by taking the ball away 5 times with 2 pick 6’s. Oregon has played better competition but had a bad loss to Oklahoma State. Looking at stats, Oregon should be able to pass their way up and down the field. UCLA should be able to run the ball down the Duck’s throats with Wayne Knight (9.1ypc, 9 TDs). The bad news for UCLA, 10 penalties a game. I said before the season Bob Chesney was the next Curt Cignetti, and so far, he’s done nothing to prove me wrong. A win here would cement that thought.
Win Probability – Oregon 77.6%
Las Vegas Odds – Oregon -12.5, O/U 59.5
OTC’s Pick – Oregon
M 1 Texas 4-0 vs Oklahoma 2-2
ABC 2:30pm
This is the Red River Rivalry and typically one of the better games of the season. However, due to the Sooner’s performance thus far, nobody cares. At 2-2, Oklahoma has only scored 10, 14, and 13 points in their last three games and hasn’t had a rushing touchdown since their opening game of the season against UTEP. Under QB John Mateer their offense has been MIA. Texas may be ranked first in the country, but they aren’t the best team. They fell into that ranking by having a comeback win against Ohio State. It’s a good thing DC Will Muschamp’s defense is playing well because Arch Manning has yet to hit his stride. Both defenses are stout, but the Horns have more offense. If Oklahoma wins this one, it’ll be with defense.
Win Probability – Texas 73.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Texas -6, O/U 39.5
OTC’s Pick – Texas
O 22 Houston 4-1 vs Kansas State 3-1
FOX 2:30pm
These two teams have the potential to compete and win the Big XII even if BYU, Texas Tech, and Utah were and still are the favorites. This one will be the battle of the quarterbacks. K-State QB Avery Johnson is the Wildcats leading rusher and is responsible for 10 TDs. Houston’s Conner Wiegman has passed for 1,186 yards, 11 TDs and 1 interception while rushing for 156 yards and 6 TDs. Houston’s defense is strong against the run, weak against the pass. K-State has a balanced offense, but their weak spot is their passing game. Houston as a solid passing game. Even with K-State’s defense, I’m not sure how they are favored in this one.
Win Probability – Kansas State 56.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Kansas State -2.5, O/U 55.5
OTC’s Pick – Houston
O 10 LSU 4-1 vs Kentucky 4-1
ESPN 6:00pm
Kentucky head coach Will Stien stirred things up at SEC media days when he was asked why he thought he could win at Kentucky. His response, “Because of me.” At the time I thought it was kind of a big-headed statement. But when you consider he’s the first Kentucky head coach since Bear Bryant in 1946 to start 4-1 in his first season, it holds true. When it comes to LSU the big question for me is how long Sam Levitt can stand up physically. He’s already beaten up. He’s rushed for 220 yards and 6 TDs in five games. At that pace I can’t see him holding up through an SEC season. Something will have to change. If I know Lane Kiffin, he’ll try to make Stien rethink his statement. If you win because of you, then you more than likely lose because of you too.
Win Probability – LSU 74.4%
Las Vegas Odds – LSU -10.5, O/U 52.5
OTC’s Pick – LSU
O 19 USC 5-1 vs Penn State 3-2
NBC 6:30pm
It got ugly fast for both of these coaches. For Lincoln Riley, he again didn’t field a defense and lost to Oregon, a game he was expected to win this season. For Matt Campbell it’s been back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Northwestern. The Wisconsin loss was a collapse, the Northwestern loss a beat down in which they gave up over 400 yards rushing. Here’s Campbell’s problem, like Curt Cignetti, he took 24 players from Iowa State with him to Penn State. However, unlike Cignetti’s JMU players, Campbell’s Iowa State players aren’t getting it done in the Big Ten. It doesn’t add up. This was supposed to be USC’s year. Penn State’s schedule was supposed to be easy. One of these coaches is about to be in deep doo-doo.
Win Probability – Penn State 52.1%
Las Vegas Odds – USC -1.5, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – USC
M 2 Georgia 5-0 vs 6 Alabama 5-0
ABC 6:30pm
The best game of the weekend, without doubt. In my opinion these are the two best teams in the SEC if not college football. Statistically we’re talking about the No. 1 & 2 teams in the FBS in scoring, with Georgia scoring 51.4 points per game and Alabama 49.6. However, defensively Georgia is significantly better in every category except rush defense. The Bulldogs rank 3rd in the FBS, the Tide 10th. From a QB standpoint, Gunnar Stockton is more experienced than Keelon Russell, and while Stockton is talented, it’s hard to deny how dynamic Russell can be. I want to go with Russell and the Tide, but I can’t go against Kirby’s defense.
Win Probability – Alabama 52.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -3, O/U 54.5
OTC’s Pick – Georgia
I ended up picking 12 games, some good, some bad. Before last week I was 24-11 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. Since I went 7-5 last week, I’m now 31-16. Under 50% which isn’t anything to brag about when making straight up picks. It’s why I don’t gamble. I let my heart get too involved.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
Art worked designed and owned by Lyle Harmon and ‘Off the Cob’.
Stay on top of Husker football at CarrikerChronicles.com
