Games of note last week were Oregon’s victory over USC, LSU’s spanking of Texas A&M, Georgia’s domination of what we already suspected was a bad Oklahoma team, and Iowa’s last second victory over Michigan, which can only be described as karma. Texas squeaked by Tennessee and Northwestern kept it surprisingly close against Indiana. Yes, it’s college football, the greatest sport on earth. I picked 13 games this week with 3 being top twenty-five matchups. Again, I’m sure I also picked a couple of stinkers, but even then, I think they have something to offer.

Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:

Must See games: M

Games of Interest: O

Here are my 13 games for the week. Let’s get to it.

Friday, October 2

O Pittsburgh 4-0 vs Virgina Tech 4-0

ESPN 6:00pm

Virginia Tech may be 4-0 but they have fallen under scrutiny the last couple of games. An ACC matchup with a decent Pittsburgh team will tell us more about James Franklin’s Hokies. Are they winning because of the newfound enthusiasm he’s brought to the program or are they just that talented. These teams are evenly matched statistically, both pass the ball well, both play solid rush defense. I give Franklin a slight coaching edge over Narduzzi. But this game comes down to Pittsburgh’s QB Mason Heintschel’s and Hokie QB Ethan Grunkemeyer. One will be the hero, the other the zero.

Win Probability – Virginia Tech 61%

Las Vegas Odds – Virginia Tech -5.5, O/U 54.5

OTC’s Pick – Virgina Tech

O Penn State 3-1 vs Northwestern 2-1

FOX 7:00pm

Some people will question this game making the list, but Northwestern playing defending national champion Indiana to within six points and Penn State falling to Wisconsin has caused a shift in power in the Big Ten. Northwestern seems to be much improved with DC Chip Kelly and QB Aiden Chiles. The game is on Friday night and the Wildcats will be playing for the first time in their new stadium, Ryan Field. As for Matt Campbell’s squad, there was question from the start if they weren’t just a Big XII East Iowa State. Campbell has a lot to prove. One team is for real, the other an imposter.

Win Probability – Penn State 55.6%

Las Vegas Odds – Penn State -7, O/U 45.5

OTC’s Pick – Northwestern

Saturday, October 3

O Michigan 3-1 vs Minnesota 3-1

FOX 11:00am

Michigan has been performing a hire wire act all season before falling against Iowa, who was clearly the best team they’ve seen this season. The problem for the Wolverines is a pathetic offense and a good defense that spends too much time on the field. I’m shocked they’re four games in, and Whittingham hasn’t gotten things headed in the right direction. Minnesota is tough at home, but then again, we saw Mississippi State thrash them before they went west and defeated a favored Washington team. Is the Big Ten that bad or is the SEC that good? Will PJ be rowing or bailing in this one?

Win Probability – Michigan 68%

Las Vegas Odds – Michigan -8.5, O/U 43.5

OTC’s Pick – Michigan

M 7 Alabama 4-0 vs 16 Mississippi State 4-0

ABC 11:00am

There were plenty of cowbells out last week when Missouri was in Starkville, but with No.7 Alabama in town nobody will have to tell the Bulldog fans, “I need more cowbell.” I’ve been high on Kamario Taylor all season, but I also really like what I’ve seen from Keelon Russell. Taylor was dinged up against Missouri and still led his team to a win. Russell looked unstoppable against South Carolina completing 21-of-27 passes for 365 yards and 4 TDs, while rushing for 35 yards and another TD. State has been on the rise, but Kamario lacks protection and his targets will be limited against the Tide. Plus, the Bulldogs defense will not be able to contain Russell.

Win Probability – Alabama 66.3%

Las Vegas Odds – Alabama -3, O/U 60.5

OTC’s Pick – Alabama

O Vanderbilt 3-1 vs 2 Georgia 4-0

SECN 11:45am

I got caught up, the Deigo Pavia era has come and gone. This one is a stinker and I’m not sure why it’s one of my picks or how it remained as one of my picks. Looking at Vandy’s schedule, they’ll be lucky to get to 5-7 because there aren’t teams lined up to give games away like North Carolina State did. Clark Lea may be a good coach, but he doesn’t have the resources at Vandy to win games like these. Georgia is Georgia, and Kirby is Kirby, and the Dogs are still a contender for the national championship. This one isn’t even close.

Win Probability – Georgia 91.6%

Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -23.5, O/U 50.5

OTC’s Pick – Georgia

O Auburn 3-1 vs 17 Tennessee 3-1

ESPN 2:30pm

Auburn goes through coaches like Popeye does spinach and while Alex Golesh was a good hire, even he knows there was someone holding a stopwatch when he signed on the dotted line. At 1-1 in the SEC and with a one score loss to No.8 Florida, Golesh’s team has shown promise, and because of that he’s feeling the pressure to win at No.17 Tennessee. If he can keep his QB Byrum Brown from throwing picks the Tigers will have a chance. Tennessee is better at running the ball than passing, but its Auburn’s pass defense that is suspect. This may be QB Faizon Brandon’s opportunity to show he’s the right Volunteer. The most telling stat, Auburn’s red zone defense. They allow opponents to score on 91.7% of their trips inside the twenty. Which is a problem, because Tennessee's red zone offense scores on 100.0% of their red zone opportunities.

Win Probability – Tennessee 70.9%

Las Vegas Odds – Tennessee -7.5, O/U 54.5

OTC’s Pick – Tennessee

O 8 Florida 4-0 vs 25 Missouri 3-1

ABC 2:30pm

Florida knocked Ole Miss off their high horse after defeating LSU. Some will tell you Ole Miss was flat. I’ll tell you the Gators just flat out walloped the Rebels. But Florida needs to make sure they play with the same intensity they did last week because Sumrall’s defense has been suspect against SEC teams, giving up 39 points to Auburn and 28 to Ole Miss. Florida RB Jadan Baugh averages 150 yards rushing and almost 3 TDs a game. Missouri QB Austin Simmons is talented, but without RB Ahmad Hardy he can’t carry this team alone.

Win Probability – Florida 65.7%

Las Vegas Odds – Florida -2.5, O/U 56.5

OTC’s Pick – Florida

 

M 5 Ohio State 3-1 vs 14 Iowa 4-0

CBS 2:30pm

One of the top matchups of the weekend. So much so that ESPN made Iowa City their College Gameday destination, and why not. Iowa is always tough at Kinnick Stadium and it’s no secret what Kirk Ferentz’s game plan will be. Slow the game down, win the time of possession, win the special teams battle, make the Buckeyes press until they turn the ball over and keep it close until the fourth quarter. Iowa’s offense is improved, averaging 215 yards a game rushing with a 6.5 yard per carry average. Ohio State’s defense isn’t hitting on all cylinders and is 52nd nationally in 3rd down defense. Iowa’s defense only allows 152 yards passing, 87.8 yards rushing, and 9 points per game. Buckeye’s WR Jeremiah Smith averages 154.7 yards receiving and almost 2 TDs per game. This one will come down to Iowa’s defense against Smith.

Win Probability – Ohio State 83%

Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -14, O/U 45.5

OTC’s Pick – Iowa

O Virginia 3-1 vs Florida State 2-2

ESPN2 2:30pm

This one may be a stinker. But people are asking when Norvell will be asked to hit the road, when it’s defensive coordinator Tony White who may go first. The Seminoles defense has been atrocious, giving up an average of 330 yards and 25 points a game. The Noles offense hasn’t been horrible, but QB Ashton’s Daniels’s 5 interceptions haven’t helped. On the other side of the ball, Virgina’s offense, led by QB Beau Pribula, averages 447 yards and 40 points a game. The Cavs defense only gives up 130 yards passing and 13 points per game. The problem, West Virgina rushed for 247 yards against them in their only loss. Still, I like Virgina, even on the road.

Win Probability – Virginia 56.5%

Las Vegas Odds – Virginia -1.5, O/U 51.5

OTC’s Pick – Virgina

M Maryland 2-2 vs Nebraska 4-0

FS1 3:00pm

Of the four hot seat coaches fielding teams this weekend, Maryland’s Mike Locksley’s is the hottest of all, although Norvell, Riley, and Beemer aren’t far behind. Maryland’s eight-year veteran coach lost his Big Ten opener 54-3 to first-year UCLA coach Bob Chesney last Saturday. The loss made a coach already in trouble look even worse. It all adds up to making the Terrapins a threat. Will Nebraska face a wounded animal ready to fight or a team that is deflated and willing to give up. Nebraska looked ugly and spectacular all in the same game against Michigan State. Dana Holgorsen put it best when he said, “But at the end of the day, it didn’t all suck. There was some good in there too.”  Can the Huskers put four full quarters of football together against the Turtles?

Win Probability – Nebraska 84.2%

Las Vegas Odds – Nebraska -12.5, O/U 52.5

OTC’s Pick – Nebraska

O 24 Kentucky 3-1 vs South Carolina 2-2

SECN 3:15pm

The Gamecocks last two games have not gone according to plan and the “Fire Beemer” chants were rampant last week against Bama. Two things have killed the Gamecocks, QB LaNorris Sellers’s turning the ball over and no pass defense. The Gamecocks allow 29.5 yards per completion and 221 yards and almost 3 TDs a game. Kentucky has a balanced offense and has a ‘just good enough’ passing game to give South Carolina trouble. Meanwhile, their defense is almost as bad as South Carolina’s, giving up 356.3 total yards and 25 points a game. Whoever plays the best defense wins this one. Kentucky’s Will Stein may not need a win as much as Shane Beemer does, but he’ll get it. 

Win Probability – Sout Carolina 56.5%

Las Vegas Odds – South Carolina -7, O/U 53.5

OTC’s Pick – Kentucky

O 4 Miami 4-0 vs Clemson 3-1

ABC 6:30pm

After playing for the national championship last season Miami plugged transfer quarterback Darin Mensah into their offense and picked up where they left off. The Canes are averaging 588.8 yards of offense a game while defensively only allowing 224 total yards and 9 points per game. Only 39 of that 224 was rushing yards. This is not one of Swinney’s better teams, and with not yet being fully on board with NIL, he is simply out talented. There are those that say Dabo is done and needs a fresh start elsewhere. Miami won’t do anything to squelch that talk. And until Swinney accepts the new world of college football, his teams will continue to struggle.

Win Probability – Miami 86.2%

Las Vegas Odds – Miami -7, O/U 47.5

OTC’s Pick – Miami

O Washington 3-1 vs 18 USC 4-1

NBC 6:30pm

This one is interesting because both teams are on a downhill trajectory. Which one will pull out of it, and which one is about to hit terminal velocity?  Washington started the season as a legitimate CFP contender but hasn’t looked up to the part. They were slowed out of the gate by injuries, but it was thought QB Demond Williams could get them over the hump. But with absolutely no running game and throwing two interceptions last week, it doesn’t’ appear he’ll be able to do it by himself. Lincoln Riley was supposed to have found the final piece to get the Trojans to the CFP when he added Gary Patterson as his DC, but after giving up 35 points per game in the last three outings, things have gotten worse. Neither team’s schedule allows for a loss. This is more than likely an elimination game.

Win Probability – USC 75%

Las Vegas Odds – USC -10, O/U 58.5

OTC’s Pick – USC

I ended up picking 13 games, some good, some bad. Before last week I was 24-9 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. Last week I went 10-2 missing USC and Penn State. So, now I’m 34-11 and not feeling too confident with this week’s picks.

GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!

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