Before the season I said Nebraska would go 8-4 with losses to Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Iowa. But after their performance against Indiana and what I’ve seen from Oregon this season, I’ve changed my mind. I’m not saying this team will go to the CFP, but with a win against Oregon they have the potential to go 10-2 and perhaps qualify.

The big question right now is where these two teams are mentally. Oregon lost their quarterback Dante Moore at USC and backup Dyan Raiola was the worst he’s ever looked against UCLA. To say the Ducks struggled last week on offense would be a massive understatement. With losing their second game of the season there is little or no chance they will make the CFP with a third loss. Meaning they must win out. That creates a ton of pressure on this team.

That’s something new for Dan Lanning and Oregon. They haven’t dealt with or faced that kind of adversity since Lanning’s arrival. In fact, Lanning has only lost three games at home in five seasons and never had back-to-back losses since becoming Oregon’s head coach.

And how about Nebraska, will they come into Eugene angry and ready to prove themselves or will there be a letdown after losing to Indiana, a game they should have won. It’s important they shake that loss off and come in kicking butt and taking names.

Nebraska Wins Because of Their Quarterback

One guy I’ll say comes in with his mind right will be Anthony Colandrea. And that’s good because this team rallies around their quarterback. Wherever Colandrea is, this team will be there. We’ve already seen what a difference Colandrea has made and what he’s capable of in Dana Holgorsen’s offense. His play not only takes this team to another level but his attitude and mindset changes how this team plays the game. Colandrea is a difference maker.

In six games Colandrea averages 234 yards passing and almost 50 yards rushing per game. He has 13 passing TDs and 3 rushing TDs while only throwing 3 interceptions in 186 pass attempts. As we saw against Indiana, his play making ability adds another weapon to Holgorsen’s already versatile offense.

While he’s not a quarterback, they call linebacker Owen Chambliss the ‘General’. He’s Colandrea’s equivalent on the defense. The electricity may not pop and sizzle around him as it does Colandrea, but his teammates believe in him and would follow him into the fires of hades if he told them that’s where the ball was.

Nebraska Wins Because of Oregon’s Quarterbacks

Dante Moore will not start. Which means the best-case scenario for Nebraska is if Dylan Raiola is the starter. Simply said, advantage Huskers.

After playing two seasons for Nebraska, the Big Red staff is well aware of Raiola’s shortcomings. And they saw what UCLA did to him, forcing him to have his worst game as a college quarterback. Nebraska defensive coordinator Rob Aurich can take that plus what they already know and put together a game plan that gets after him and takes away his safety blankets. We’ve all seen what happens when Dylan’s concrete feet get happy.

That’s why I don’t see Raiola starting this game. With Dante Moore out, I think Lanning will start Brock Thomas and then bring Raiola in as needed. It’s a different ball game filling in versus be the starter. Raiola looked unstoppable against USC off the bench but was horrific as the starter against UCLA.

After Dante Moore went down at USC, Raiola came in and went 19/25 for 289 yards with 11.6 yards per completion and 3 touchdowns. But against UCLA he went 6/19 for 43 yards, 2.3 yards per completion, 0 TDs, and had 2 interceptions and a fumble before being benched.

After that Brock Thomas came in and went 11/15 for 156 yards and 1 TD. As a team Oregon had 272 total yards of offense and was 1-for-12 on third down against the Bruins.

But here’s an alert. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Lanning use a third option. Besides Raiola and Thomas, he also has 6’5”, 230-pound freshman Akili Smith Jr. What sets Smith apart is his size and his legs. He is a much better runner than Raiola and Thomas. Don’t be surprised if Lanning puts him in the game at some point to see how the Blackshirts handle a QB that can move.

Nebraska Wins Because of Their Defensive Line

Before the season started there was concern over Nebraska’s defensive line holding up. And while most Husker fans were underwhelmed with Nebraska’s portal acquisitions, I think they would now tell you how wrong they were. The additions of Owen Stoudmire, Jahsear Whittington and Anthony Jones have been huge for the Blackshirts. This week during his press conference defensive coordinator Rob Aurich called Owen Stoudmire the centering force of the defensive line.

So, what makes that centering force so effective? It starts with DC Rob Aurich and his 4-2-5 scheme which fits Nebraska’s talent much better than the old 3-3-5. Then add in new defensive line coaches Cory Brown, Dave Tollefson and Roy Manning and you really have something. If you watched the Blackshirts last season, then you’ll be the first to point out that this defensive line is playing with a new attitude and is fueled with renewed confidence. This trio of coaches has made a difference. People can talk all day long about talent acquisition, and there is something to that, but coaching still matters.

But the players Nebraska already had on the roster may have taken to the coaches even more than the new additions. We’ve seen a turnaround in players like Riley Van Poppel, Williams Nwaneri, and Kade Peitrzak with new guidance. There is also a strong rotation during games getting fresh bodies on the field in Tyson Terry, Mason Goldman, and Dylan Berymon.  

The Blackshirts have logged 36 tackles for a loss and 18 quarterback sacks on the season. Of those numbers, the defensive line has accounted for 14 TFLs and 9.5 sacks.

The defense has been solid against the run in Big Ten play, only allowing 81.6 yards rushing per game. Indiana, who rushed for 221 yards per game before playing Nebraska, was held to 65 total rushing yards. The Blackshirts will need to show they can repeat that feat against the fashionista Ducks.  

Nebraska Wins Because of Oregon’s Offensive Line

Oregon’s problems revolve around the poor play of their offensive line. All week I’ve heard multiple media members, both from Nebraska and Oregon, describe the Ducks O-Line as an absolute mess.

If you’ve watched Oregon play this season it’s not hard to see and if you take the Duck’s last three games into account (Oklahoma State, USC, UCLA), they have only rushed for 105 yards per game and are ranked 89th in the nation.

Because of that, defenses have forced the Ducks to throw the ball and then have teed off on the quarterback. In those same three games this O-Line has given up 11 tackles for a loss and 5 sacks. We won’t talk about the number of hurries that have occurred.

Nebraska will need to stop the run, and then pressure the quarterback, if they can do that, they have a real shot at beating this Oregon team.

Intangibles

The Blackshirts rank second in the nation in forcing a stop on 3rd or 4th down, shutting down opponents 74.1% of the time.

Against Maryland the Blackshirts held the Terps to1-for-14 on 3rd down and 1-for-2 on 4th down. The next week, showing they were for real against a top ten ranked Indiana team, the Hoosiers went just 1-for-10 on 3rd down. Unfortunately, they went 1-for1 on 4th down, executing a 44-yard touchdown pass to Nick Marsh that cost the Huskers the game.

We saw Nick Marsh make two big plays that sunk the Huskers. Oregon has more talent than Indiana and there are multiple guys who can make backbreaking plays against the Blackshirts if they aren’t disciplined.

We’ll see who starts in place of the injured Jamir Conn. Aurich eluded it may not be another safety, but he’ll try to get the best players on the field. With Oregon’s talent and speed at wide receiver it’s possible we’ll see cornerbacks Andrew Marshall, Danny Odem and Victor Evans all on the field at the same time.

Oregon will attack the Blackshirts with run pass option, as they’ve shown a tendency to struggle preventing the big play due to the safeties playing the run so heavily.

After the Indiana game Rob Aurich emphasized to his players, “Understand when winning time is”.

Aurich doesn’t need to tell the fans that. We all know when winning time is. It’s now.

GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!

Photos courtesy of the Falls City Journal Home - Falls City Journal - Falls City, NE

Stats gathered from ESPN - Serving Sports Fans. Anytime. Anywhere.

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