I said last week to look for more movement as we enter the second half of the schedule, and after week 7 that’s exactly what we got. Five of the top seven teams in the AP Poll rankings lost last weekend. No.1 Georgia lost to Auburn, No.2 Notre Dame lost to BYU, No. 5 Indiana lost to Ohio State, No. 6 Alabama lost to Tennessee, and No. 7 Texas lost to Florida. Other Top 25 teams losing were Missouri, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma State. Obviously the Top 25 rankings have been shuffled.

I picked 10 games this week with only 3 being Top 25 matchups. After a history making weekend last week there aren’t nearly as many good matchups this week. I have three games marked as “Must See” and I’m sure many will disagree with me on North Dakota State vs New Mexico. But that’s me, I see it as a big game that could be critical for the future of both programs.

Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:

Must See games: M

Games of Interest: O

Here are my 10 games for the week. Let’s get to it.

Saturday, October 24

O 18 LSU 5-2 vs Auburn 4-2

ABC 11:00pm

The big story in this one, Auburn upset No.1 Georgia last week.  Can they be giant killers again? Auburn QB Byrum Brown was the difference, rushing for 115 yards and 1 TD while passing for 150 yards and a TD. LSU’s Sam Levitt led his team to a 31-0 win and took advantage of a Mississippi State secondary passing for 289 yards and 4 TDs. But even more impressive was the fact Levitt didn’t turn the ball over, not once. The first time that’s happened this season. LSU’s numbers are better in almost every category including penalty yards, which was part of what prompted Georgia’s loss to the War Eagles. That and Georgia’s three turnovers.

Win Probability – LSU 66.1%

Las Vegas Odds – LSU -6.5, O/U 51.5

OTC’s Pick – LSU

O 6 Indiana 6-1 vs Michigan 4-2

FOX 11:00pm

Indiana should have beaten Ohio State, but two uncharacteristic fumbles by the Hoosiers hurt. One was by QB Josh Hoover, his first turnover of the season. Now that the turnover seal has been broken will it be a problem? Indiana also had trouble running the ball for the second straight week, only gaining 73 yards against the Buckeyes and 65 yards against Nebraska. Those numbers don’t bode well for the Hoosiers against Michigan. Being one dimensional could become a problem. It has been the Wolverine’s defense that has kept them alive this season as they only give up an average of 16.2 points per game, and no one has scored more than 20 points on them this season. Offensively they haven’t been able to get anything going with Bryce Underwood at QB. They’ve only averaged 22.6 points in their three games against top 30 ranked scoring defenses. Tommy Carr started the second half in Underwood’s place last week against Penn State and prompted a comeback going 5-for-7 passing for 47 yards and rushing for 36 yards and a TD. Will it be Carr or Underwood this week?    

Win Probability – Indiana 73.1%

Las Vegas Odds – Indiana -8.5, O/U 41.5

OTC’s Pick – Indiana

O 15 Iowa 5-1 vs 5 Minnesota 4-2

FS1 2:30pm

Both teams are coming off a bye week with 41 being the magic number. Iowa, who scored 41 points against Washington, and Minnesota, who gave up 41 points to Purdue. Besides those numbers, let these sink in. Purdue had 305 yards rushing against the Gophers. Iowa had 263 yards rushing against Washington. Minnesota had 27 yards rushing against Purdue. Washington ended up -3 yards rushing against Iowa. Yes, Iowa QB Jeremey Hecklinski passed for 202 yards and 3 TDs in his first career start against Washington, but all he needs to do in this one is hand the ball off. PJ’s crew can row like hell, but it won’t be enough.

Win Probability – Iowa 70.9%

Las Vegas Odds – Iowa -7.5, O/U 40.5

OTC’s Pick – Iowa

O 11 Tennessee 6-1 vs South Carolina 3-3

ESPN 2:30pm

Tennessee is winning with defense and the running of DeSean Bishop, who averages 6 yards per carry and has scored 10 TDs. Defensively the Vols have logged 30 sacks, 58 tackles for a loss, 7 interceptions, and 5 fumble recoveries on the season. They held Bama to 201 total yards of offense last week. South Carolina dropped three conference games in a row before taking it to Florida. LaNorris sellers finally got on track scoring five total touchdowns against the Gators. The Gamecocks are coming off a bye and Tennessee is coming off a huge win over Alabama. Will the Gamecocks come in prepared and will the Vols fall flat after a big win?

Win Probability – Tennessee 51.9%

Las Vegas Odds – Tennessee +2.5, O/U 50.5

OTC’s Pick – Tennessee

O Oklahoma 3-3 vs Mississippi State 4-2

SEC Network 2:30pm

With the way QB John Mateer and his teammates played offensively last week it’s hard to get behind the Sooners. But they played Kentucky tough with defense alone. Mateer can chunk the ball when given time and the Bulldog’s secondary got lit up last week by LSU’s Levitt. That plus the fact it’s questionable QB Kamario Taylor and RB Fluff Boswell play for MSU makes this one anti-climactic. If they do play however, look out. Remember Mateer say he knew his receivers were open when he heard the crowd. Yeah, he won’t be able to hear anything over the cowbells.

Win Probability – Oklahoma 56.1%

Las Vegas Odds – Oklahoma -4.5, O/U 44.5

OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma

O Virginia Tech 5-2 vs Clemson 4-2

ESPN 6:00pm

James Franklin had it going then dropped games against Pittsburgh and Cal. It was disappointing for Hokie fans. However, Franklin got back on track with a win over Georgia Tech and could pick up momentum with a victory over Dabo and Clemson. QB Ethan Grunkemeyer is putting up good numbers with a 72.9% completion rate for 1,984 yards, 15 TDs and 2 interceptions. Clemson’s two losses came to LSU and Miami. Their wins were against Cal and North Carolina. None of their numbers, offensively or defensively, are worth mentioning, unless you want to mention they only have 2 passing TDs and 7 interceptions on the season.     

Win Probability – Clemson 56%

Las Vegas Odds – Clemson -2.5, O/U 49.5

OTC’s Pick – Virgina Tech

O 16 USC 6-1 vs Wisconsin 4-2

NBC 6:30pm

USC’s loss to Oregon put them behind the 8-Ball. With games against Ohio State, Indiana, and UCLA, every outing is now a must win. They can’t get caught looking ahead to Ohio State because Wisconsin has the best scoring defense the Trojans have faced this season (16.7 points per game). UCLA took Badgers QB Colton Joesph out of the game last week, only allowing him to pass for 66 yards. The good news for the Badgers is that USC’s defense has been suspect all season. This one will come down to the Trojans offense against the Badgers defense. I like QB Jayden Maiava and his receiving corps in this one.

Win Probability – USC 54.6%

Las Vegas Odds – USC -2.5, O/U 49.5

OTC’s Pick – USC

 

M 7 Ole Miss 5-1 vs 19 Texas 4-2

ABC 6:30pm

Ole Miss has bounced back from the Florida loss with two wins. The last one over Missouri was big. Ole Miss QB Trinadad Chambliss is still what makes the Rebels dangerous. After squeaking by Tennessee and then dropping games to Oklahoma and Florida, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is reevaluating everything. Which includes the struggling Arch Manning. A third loss would knock the Longhorns out of CFP contention and Sark could find himself squarely on the hotseat. The best game of the week, there is a ton of drama in this one. Arch says he’s just going to cut loose and sling it. That could mean lighting up the scoreboard or throwing a couple of picks and getting benched.

Win Probability – Texas 61.4%

Las Vegas Odds – Texas -3.5, O/U 53.5

OTC’s Pick – Ole Miss

M North Dakota State 6-1 vs New Mexico 5-1

CW 9:00pm

This is a huge game in the Group of Six. Both coaches, Tim Polasek and Jason Eck are on people’s watch list for the next hiring cycle. But with both teams in the CFP hunt, neither is paying any attention. New Mexico head coach Jason Eck continues to impress with a 14-5 record since taking over the Lobos. Polasek is in his third year with the Bison and has a record of 32-4. This one should be a defensive battle. New Mexico has the top scoring defense in the country only allowing 10.2 points per game. Number two in the country is North Dakota State at 11.3 points per game. The Bison are on a mission to win their first Mountain West Conference title. Jason Eck is a man among coaches. The wild card, Bison QB Nathan Hayes.

Win Probability – New Mexico 61.1%

Las Vegas Odds – New Mexico -4.5, O/U 41.5

OTC’s Pick – New Mexico

M 14 Houston 6-1 vs 10 Utah 6-0

ESPN 8:15pm

Houston will be the best team Utah has faced up to this point and the first ranked team. No one on the Utes schedule is above .500 on the season. Houston on the other hand has walked through the fire with their only loss coming to Texas Tech. They are also already bowl eligible. Two talented quarterbacks will go head-to-head in Deven Dampier and Conner Wiegman. Wiegman is coming off his best game of the season against a good Oklahoma State team. Dampier played well against a less than stellar Colorado team and threw two picks. Both teams have strong running games and solid defenses. This one will come down to who makes fewer mistakes.

Win Probability – Utah 68%

Las Vegas Odds – Utah -6.5, O/U 56.5

OTC’s Pick – Houston

With not a whole lot to pick from I ended up picking 10 games. For week seven I went 5-7 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. So now I’m 44-27 for the season. Nothing to brag about when making straight up picks.

GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!

Art worked designed and owned by Lyle Harmon and ‘Off the Cob’.

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