We continue to see the rankings turnover with teams posting big wins or losing games they weren’t expected to. Texas dropped from No.1 to No.7 after a loss to Oklahoma. LSU dropped from No.11 to No.22 after losing to Kentucky, and Oregon dropped out of the top 25 after losing to UCLA. Moving up, Missouri jumped 12 spots from No.25 to No.13 after a win over Texas A&M and UCLA moved up from No.23 to No.12 after the win over Oregon. Look for more movement as we enter the second half of the schedule.
I picked 12 games this week with 6 being top twenty-five matchups. I know I picked at least one stinker and maybe two, but even so, I think they have something to offer. The two biggest games are Indiana vs Ohio State and Notre Dame vs BYU. Usually, I have two perhaps three games marked as “Must See”, but this week I have four. But that’s me, not everyone will feel the same.
Reminder – this year I’m listing games in two categories, “Must See” and “Of Interest”. They’ll be signified as follows:
Must See games: M
Games of Interest: O
Here are my 12 games for the week. Let’s get to it.
Friday, October 8
O 16 Mississippi State 4-1 vs 22 LSU 4-2
ESPN 11:00pm
If someone had told me before the season that Mississippi State would be ranked six spots higher than LSU in the polls when they met, I would’ve said they were crazy. But that’s where we’re at. With Mississippi State’s only loss being to Alabama and a good win over 13th ranked Missouri the Bulldogs have looked formidable with QB Kamario Taylor. LSU’s losses were to 9th ranked Ole Miss and 15th ranked Kentucky. Their best win is over a mediocre Clemson team. Nothing alarming stands out statistically about Kiffin’s team other than QB Sam Levitt’s 8 interceptions. If this game was in the land of Cowbells rather than Death Valley, I’d go with the Bulldogs.
Win Probability – LSU 80.7%
Las Vegas Odds – LSU -14, O/U 58.5
OTC’s Pick – LSU
O Florida 4-2 vs 7 Texas 4-1
ABC 11:00pm
Last season Texas claimed a loss to Ohio State kept them out of the playoffs, when in all truthfulness it was the loss to a bad Florida team that cost them. Now after a bad loss to a reeling Oklahoma team, they face a Florida team that is reeling as well. The bad news is that this Florida team is better than last year’s team. Texas QB Arch Manning threw two costly interceptions in the 4th quarter that cost the Horns the game. The first was returned 42 yards for a TD. The second happened with :19 seconds remaining in the game and set up OU’s game winning field goal. OU also blocked a Texas punt for a score. Texas will have to play much better ball, or this Gator team will put the bite on them. Even at home.
Win Probability – Texas 78.6%
Las Vegas Odds – Texas -4.5, O/U 42.5
OTC’s Pick – Texas
M 4 Ohio State 5-1 vs 5 Indiana 6-0
FOX 11:00pm
Ohio State should have defeated Texas but let it slip away late. Two weeks again they controlled the game throughout against what was supposed to be a very good Iowa team. Now they face what was supposed to be one of their bigger challenges of the season in Indiana. But I don’t care what anybody says, defending national champions or not, the Hoosiers have taken a step back from last season. If it weren’t for the Husker’s busts in pass coverage the Hoosiers would’ve lost last week. Indiana will play OSU tough, but the Hoosier’s linebackers can’t get to the sideline fast enough, and WR Jeremiah Smith will eat their mediocre secondary alive.
Win Probability – Ohio State 61.9%
Las Vegas Odds – Ohio State -3.5, O/U 51.5
OTC’s Pick – Ohio State
Saturday, October 9
M Nebraska 5-1 vs Oregon 3-2
FOX 10:00pm
Before the season I said Nebraska would go 8-4 with losses to Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Iowa. But after their performance against Indiana and what I’ve seen from Oregon, if the Ducks don’t get themselves in a row they’re plucked. Oregon is unable to run the ball and has struggled to protect the quarterback. We saw Nebraska stuff Indiana’s running game last week and sack their QB twice while adding a few more pressures. Dante Moore is out, so who lines up at QB for the Ducks will determine the Blackshirt’s approach. And where is Oregon mentally right now? With two losses the season hasn’t gone as they expected. And how about Nebraska, will they come in angry or flat after the Indiana loss? This one will come down to Nebraska’s offense verses Oregon’s defense plus who has their minds right.
Win Probability – Oregon 73%
Las Vegas Odds – Oregon -7.5, O/U 52.5
OTC’s Pick – Nebraska
O 6 Alabama 5-1 vs 14 Tennessee 5-1
ABC 2:30pm
Alabama was walking through their schedule beating Kentucky by 28, Florida State by 14, South Carolina by 31, and Mississippi State by 33. Then came Georgia. The game was competitive throughout, then things went south for Bama and head coach Kalen DeBoer almost popped a cork. It’ll be interesting to see how he and his team respond. Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon injured his shoulder against Texas. With backup QB George MacIntyre throwing two interceptions last week, look for the Vols to rely on their running game. That’s a problem since Bama only allows 98 yards rushing per game. QB Keelon Russell is still the juice that makes Bama go. That won’t change.
Win Probability – Alabama 74.4%
Las Vegas Odds – Alabama -8.5, O/U 51.5
OTC’s Pick – Alabama
O Penn State 3-3 vs Michigan 3-2
CBS 2:30pm
I had Michigan as one of the top three teams in the conference before the season started. I thought Kyle Whittingham was a perfect fit for Michigan football. He was always hardnosed and had physical teams at Utah. That hasn’t shown up in his first Big Ten season. I also thought Matt Campbell was a good hire at Penn State, although in my opinion it was a lateral move for the school. Penn State was seen as a potential CFP team in Campbell’s first year due to their schedule. But I didn’t see it. Yes, he brought a bunch of players with him, but Big Ten football and Big XII football are two very different things. Whittingham has a solid defense and has talent to work with on offense. Campbell only has what he has and isn’t done posting losses.
Win Probability – Michigan 67.5%
Las Vegas Odds – Michigan -65, O/U 42.5
OTC’s Pick – Michigan
M 13 Missouri 5-1 vs 9 Ole Miss 4-1
SEC Network 2:30pm
After Missouri lost to Mississippi State I left them for dead. But they’ve bounced back with convincing wins over Florida and Texas A&M. Then I must remind myself who Florida and A&M are, or in this case aren’t. Ole Miss didn’t run away from Louisville, got revenge on Kiffin and LSU, then was dismantled by Florida and bounced back against Vanderbilt. So, just how good are they – really. I think the Tigers will run all over the Rebels with RB Jamal Roberts who is averaging 138 yards rushing per game. I also think the Rebels will have to pass to win. The wildcard, Trinadad Chambliss.
Win Probability – Ole Miss 66.6%
Las Vegas Odds – Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 59.5
OTC’s Pick – Missouri
O Auburn 3-2 vs 1 Georgia 6-0
ABC 6:30pm
Considering Georgia is No. 1 and what they’ve done thus far on the season, this one may be a stinker. Championship caliber teams run the ball well and defend the run. Georgia does both, averaging 212 yards a game rushing and only allowing 75 rushing yards per game. Auburn head coach Alex Golesh brought South Florida QB Byrum Brown with him to Auburn, but Brown’s numbers haven’t been as hoped with only 7 passing TDs and 7 interceptions. He has, however, rushed for 344 yards and 4 TDs. Still, he’s no Gunnar Stockton who has passed for 1,298 yards, a 77% completion rate, 14 TDs and 2 interceptions while rushing for 134 yards and 1 TD. Nothing here adds up in Auburn’s favor.
Win Probability – Georgia 89.8%
Las Vegas Odds – Georgia -20.5, O/U 49.5
OTC’s Pick – Georgia
O Florida State 3-3 vs 3 Miami 5-0
ESPN 6:00pm
This one shouldn’t be a game and falls onto my stinkers list. But there was a day when this was one of the hardest hitting games of the season as many of the players also competed against each other in high school. It’s never been a question of whether Mike Norvell is fired, just when. Now it appears his buyout is just too big, and it isn’t going to happen during the season. When things do finally change at FSU it’ll be a complete house cleaning. Everybody goes. The Hurricanes continue to build and just get stronger. Dismantling the Seminoles is just another step towards the CFP.
Win Probability – Miami 89%
Las Vegas Odds – Miami -21, O/U 55.5
OTC’s Pick – Miami
M 2 Notre Dame 6-0 vs 8 BYU 5-0
ABC 6:30pm
Tabbed as the “Holy War’ this game is huge for both teams. If both run the table this game will have a huge impact on seeding. Maybe I’m a little ahead of myself. But Marcus Freeman’s Irish are on a mission, they won’t be denied CFP qualification. And BYU is a strong candidate to win the Big XII. The setback, QB Bear Bachmeier is the Cougars leading rusher, when your QB is you leading rusher it’s never ideal, and without stud RB LJ Martin they become one dimensional. Martin is a physical runner that can’t be replaced. With QB CJ Carr leading the way the Irish average 261.8 yards passing,194.8 yards rushing and 44 points per game. However, those stats were put up against a bunch of nobody’s. BYU isn’t a nobody, but only has one advantage, home field. And that isn’t enough.
Win Probability – Notre Dame 77.7%
Las Vegas Odds – Notre Dame -10, O/U 46.5
OTC’s Pick – Notre Dame
O 15 Kentucky 5-1 vs Oklahoma 3-2
SEC Network 6:30pm
With each Kentucky win and watching Oregon struggle, I’m thinking there is something to Will Stein’s saying that he would be the reason the Wildcats would be successful. Oklahoma has a solid defense that will test Stein. The Sooners shouldn’t have defeated Texas, but with Mannings gifts they stole the win. John Mateer and the Oklahoma offense continues to struggle. Between not having a running game and Mateer being unable to take care of the football they’re lucky to have three wins. Kentucky can move the ball, averaging 414.2 yards and 34.7 points a game. But defensively they give up 382 yards and 28 points a game. The Wildcat stats that have kept them in it, 30 TFLs, 13 sacks, 7 interceptions, and 5 fumble recoveries.
Win Probability – Oklahoma 71.3%
Las Vegas Odds – Oklahoma -7, O/U 43.5
OTC’s Pick – Kentucky
O 18 Oklahoma State 4-1 vs 20 Houston 6-1
FOX 6:30pm
Before the season started Houston was expected to make a run at the Big XII championship. With Eric Morris bringing the heart of his North Texas team with him to OSU big things were expected of the Cowboys. Both teams are led with strong play from their quarterbacks, Drew Mestemaker for OSU, Conner Weigman for Houston. Mestemaker has passed for 1,575 yards and 13 TDs, while rushing for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Weigman has passed for 1,428 yards and 15 TDs while rushing for 177 yards and 6 TDs. So, who has the edge. Houston only allows 74.0 yards rushing a game, the problem, they give up 248 yards a game passing. OSU’s defense is more balanced. This one should be competitive.
Win Probability – Houston 64.2%
Las Vegas Odds – Houston -4.5, O/U 62.5
OTC’s Pick – Oklahoma State
I ended up picking 12 games, some good, some bad. For week six I went 8-4 on straight up picks, not taking the spread into account. So now I’m 39-20 on the season. Nothing to brag about when making straight up picks. But it’s all for fun.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
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