From Las Vegas to ESPN and everybody else that follows college football, we all have an idea or guess of what our team’s record might be. For ESPN, they have ranked Nebraska No. 30 in their Football Power index (FPI). Not too shabby considering there are 138 FBS teams. I’m surprised the Huskers are ranked that high considering the way they ended the 2025 season. But then again, with Anthony Colandrea at QB, Geep Wade’s offensive line and Rob Aurich’s defense, one must believe the Huskers will improve on their 7-5 record of last season.
I’ve listed ESPN’s win probability numbers below, along with my own win probability and what I consider to be the storyline for each game.
Ohio Bobcats (Sept. 5)
FPI ranking: 97
Nebraska win probability: 91.7%
The Cob’s outlook: NU 1-0
Storyline: First-year head coach John Houser was the interim head coach in the Frisco Bowl game against UNLV last fall. The Bobcats defeated QB Anthony Colandrea and the Rebels. Does Houser know what it takes to contain Colandrea? We’ll get to see what our new QB is made of as it could be an interesting first outing for the Cornhusker signal caller.
Bowling Green (Sept. 12)
Opponent FPI ranking: 123
Nebraska win probability: 95.7%
The Cob’s outlook: NU 2-0
Storyline: Eddie George starts his second season as HC at Bowling Green. Yes, the former Ohio State RB who won the Heisman Trophy over Tommy Frazier in 1995. Some are calling this a revenge game, but that is the furthest thing from the Husker’s minds. What the Huskers do need to be concerned about is the NFL potential on Bowling Green’s defensive line. This could be the first true test for Geep Wade and Nebraska’s revamped O-line. We need to see Rhule put his foot on the throat of the other team. We’ve yet to witness a ruthless Rhule.
North Dakota (Sept. 19)
Opponent FPI ranking: N/A (FCS)
Nebraska win probability: 94.0%
The Cob’s outlook: 85% NU 3-0
Storyline: This is one of the best teams in the FCS and North Dakota has never been a cakewalk for Nebraska. The Fighting Hawks may be the best non-conference team the Huskers will face this season. They need to look like a Big Ten team against an FCS opponent.
Michigan State (Sept. 26)
Opponent FPI ranking: 65
Nebraska win probability: 67.9%
The Cob’s outlook: 55% NU 4-0
Pat Fitzgearld returns to coaching. Not exactly something Husker fans are particularly anxious to see since his Northwestern teams were 6-6 in his 12 games as head coach against Nebraska. His Big Ten record in that same period was 47-54. Some say there is no such thing as a must-win. But this one is a must-win since Nebraska has better talent.
Maryland (Oct. 3)
Opponent FPI ranking: 61
Nebraska win probability: 79.1%
The Cob’s outlook: 65% NU 5-0
If HC Mike Locksley gets his talent rich roster to play as a team, they could be dangerous. QB Malik Washington is one of fourteen returning starters that pushed the Husker to the limit last season. Rhule is 1-1 against the Terrapins since becoming the head man in Lincoln. This could be a trap game.
Indiana (Oct. 10)
Opponent FPI ranking: 6
Nebraska win probability: 19.0%
The Cob’s outlook: 40% NU 5-1
Storyline: The defending National Champion Hoosiers have gone 27-2 over the last two seasons and only have an 81% probability to win in Lincoln, their lowest in their first 6 games. With the atmosphere at Memorial Stadium and Ohio State and Michigan the next two games on the Hoosier’s schedule, Cignetti will see this as an ideal tune-up game and chance to make a statement. It’ll be closer than ‘Google Me’ likes.
Oregon (Oct. 17)
Opponent FPI ranking: 4
Nebraska win probability: 8.0%
The Cob’s outlook: 25% NU 5-2
Storyline: This game has the lowest probability of Nebraska winning of any on their schedule. With the game in Autzen Stadium, Dan Lanning’s team loaded with talent, and led by QB Dante Moore, who could pick against them. The last time Nebraska won a game against a ranked opponent, it was Oregon in 2016. Don’t look for that to happen again. However, the Huskers will put up a good fight.
Washington (Oct. 31)
Opponent FPI ranking: 26
Nebraska win probability: 56.8%
The Cob’s outlook: 55% NU 6-2
Storyline: This is one of three games in the final five that I feel will define Nebraska’s season. With this being a possible night game on Halloween it’s sure to be a Black-Out game with Husker fans rocking Memorial Stadium. With games against USC and Iowa we’ll know what kind of team HC Jedd Fisch has before coming to Lincoln. Since taking over Washington Fisch is 2-7 in Big Ten conference road games. Nebraska needs this one if they are going to reach eight wins.
Illinois (Nov. 6)
Opponent FPI ranking: 26
Nebraska win probability: 56.8%
The Cob’s outlook: 50% NU 7-2
Storyline: Slated to be a Friday night primetime game in Champaign, this is the second game I’m saying will define Nebraska’s season. After seven years at Wisconsin and going into his sixth year at Illinois, Brett Bielema has a Big Ten Conference record of 60-41. He knows Big Ten football. Rhule is 1-1 against Bielema who is building something in Illinois. If Illini QB Katin Houser lives up to expectations, Nebraska will have their hands full. However, Houser is prone to sacks and by the ninth game of the season Aurich will have the Blackshirts dialed in.
Rutgers (Nov. 14)
Opponent FPI ranking: 67
Nebraska win probability: 67.5%
The Cob’s outlook: 60% NU 8-2
Storyline: Both Rhule and Rutgers HC Greg Schiano have the same record over the last three seasons, 19-19, with Rhule (10-17) being one game better than Schiano (9-18) in Big Ten Conference play. People describe games with Rutgers as ‘Rock Fights’ and this season will be no different. With Rutgers at home this is a dangerous game for Nebraska.
Ohio State (Nov. 21)
Opponent FPI ranking: 1
Nebraska win probability: 10.6%
The Cob’s outlook: 40% NU 8-3
Storyline: ESPN has Ohio State ranked No.1 but by the time they get to Lincoln I don’t anticipate the Buckeyes to be that highly ranked. They have games against Texas, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, USC, and Oregon before meeting the Huskers. They also play Nebraska the week before the Michigan game. If they were to come into Lincoln with two or three losses, there would be immense pressure on Ryan Day to defeat Michigan. If the Buckeyes are pressured and looking ahead, this one could be closer than anyone thinks.
Iowa (Nov. 27)
Opponent FPI ranking: 25
Nebraska win probability: 38.4%
The Cob’s outlook: 50% NU 8-4
Storyline: Back in the day fans were willing to suffer three losses if they could get a win against Oklahoma. Today’s fans might be thinking the same thing about Iowa. Kirk Ferentz has more wins in Memorial Stadium (11) than Matt Rhule does Big Ten Conference wins (10). Nebraska is 4-11 over the last 15 seasons against Iowa, with Rhule losing all three games he’s played against Ferentz. Husker fans have had a belly full of Iowa and most of the heat Rhule gets is due to Nebraska’s record against Minnesota and Iowa over the last 3 seasons. Iowa got a soft 2026 schedule missing USC, Oregon, and Indiana. They do get Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington in games 4, 5, and 6, and then Illinois the week before playing the Huskers. But Iowa is Iowa and they’ve averaged over 8 wins a season over the last five seasons. Don’t look for that to change. Rhule needs to get the monkey off his back. This game is a coinflip.
Outlook
The key word when discussing Nebraska’s win loss record this season is – ‘variables.’ Meaning we all know things will change as the season transpires. So, while it’s easy to assign probability numbers or possible records, until the games are played, we are just spit balling.
I’ve said for the last three months Nebraska will go 8-4 in 2026. I haven’t changed my mind. But as I mentioned earlier, three games will tell the tale of Nebraska’s 2026 season, Washington, Illinois, and Iowa. In his fourth year, this season will tell us if Matt Rhule has what it takes to get Nebraska to the College Football Playoffs. Not that it will happen this season, but players came to Nebraska to play schedules like this, and because of that, Rhule needs to do more than sell promises. It’s time to win.
So, forget the schedule. This season is about a little luck, the Nebraska coaching staff’s ability to motivate, and a talented roster looking to reach their full potential.
GO BIG RED!! SIMPLE, FAST, VIOLENT!!
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